Fan Bias

As with last year’s playoff run, the Baltimore Ravens now find themselves again playing with house money, already having exceeded expectations. Whatever you think of Coach John Harbaugh’s decision making during the past two regular seasons, one thing is becoming quite clear: the man knows how to get his team peaking at the right time. His Ravens squads are now 3-1 in the playoffs, with all four games coming on the road. Whatever ills the team faces during the regular season, by late December and January, Baltimore gets healthy (metaphorically speaking) and makes other teams miserable.

So, here’s why I’m predicting yet another deep Ravens playoff run continuing tonight with a victory over the Colts at Indianapolis. (Am I biased? You bet. But, show me one head coach in the NFL that wants to play these Ravens right now.)

All the pressure is on the Colts. If Indianapolis thought that going 16-0 would add undue pressure on the team heading into the playoffs, I can only imagine the pressure the team must be feeling now after deciding to forego that achievement specifically to get healthy for a Super Bowl run. In other words, the Colts brass decided that making history was less important than winning the Super Bowl. One could argue that those aren’t mutually exclusive propositions but if this team doesn’t win the Super Bowl, then the entire season will have amounted to nothing. At least the 2007-2008 New England Patriots can claim to be the first 18-0 NFL team ever. The Ravens, on the other hand, can play loose, having nothing to lose.

The Colts aren’t very good when they have a bye in the playoffs. In fact, the Colts are 0-4 coming off playoff bye weeks. Whatever the reason, Peyton Manning and crew seem to lose the rhythm they’ve built up over a dominant regular season and fall flat in the playoffs when given time off. This year, the Colts were so dominant they had their division wrapped up early and faced very little competition (outside of the Chargers) for the #1 seed in the AFC. They decided that winning wasn’t important for games 15 and 16, which means the team hasn’t played a meaningful game in about a month.

While regular season dominance is nice, winning the Super Bowl is really all about getting hot at the right time. In fact, the Indy team that won it all in the 2006-2007 season had to play strong through the end of the season and also played wild card weekend, meaning it had no time off during that run. Similarly, these Ravens didn’t clinch a playoff spot until game 16 and have had to play at a high level through the end of the season.

The Ravens are playoff road warriors.  Baltimore is 6-2 in postseason away games in its short history. That includes not only last season’s 2-1 record but also a 2-0 record during their 2000-2001 Super Bowl title run. Clearly (and especially under Harbaugh), this franchise is not intimidated on the road. On the other hand, the Colts are 4-2 at home in the playoffs since 2000, so something’s got to give. With Ravens LB Ray Lewis rallying the troops, I’m betting Baltimore’s us-against-the-world mentality will shine through again on the road.

Joe Flacco is not 100% healthy. While Ravens fans would certainly love to have a QB playing at full strength (and this week he’s argued that he is 100% for this game) reports indicating that Flacco is coping with a hip injury may not be such a bad thing for the Ravens and its fans. Flacco, after all, has struggled against elite teams in his first two seasons. Though he’s been a tremendous game manager and has played well against the NFL’s also-rans, he hasn’t been able to consistently break through against playoff-caliber opponents. So, his supposed injury may be just the excuse coaches need to rely on the Ravens’ true offensive strength — its three-headed monster at running back.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Ravens relied heavily on Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le’Ron McClain in the two must-win games the team faced at the end of the season — week 17 against Oakland and the wild card game against New England. Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves to throw the ball around but the winning formula for the Ravens is and always has been running and defense. And, if Flacco is even a little dinged up, it’s difficult to believe Cameron is going to put the young QB in a position to win the game unless he absolutely has to.

And, here’s even better news. The Colts were 18th in the league during the regular season in total defense and only 24th against the run. They were better against the pass (ranking 14th.) The Ravens, on the other hand, were fifth best in the league running the ball while only ranked 18th passing the ball. In other words, Baltimore would struggle more with an injured Ray Rice than it will without a fully healthy Flacco. All signs (and stats) indicate that the Ravens should run, run, run.

News of the demise of the Ravens D has been greatly exaggerated. Earlier this season, fans wondered what had become of the vaunted Baltimore defense under first year coordinator Greg Mattison. Fans were especially concerned about a lack of rush from the front four and poor coverage in the secondary. Well, the Ravens were a more than respectable eighth against the pass this season while boasting the third best overall defense in the league. And, based on last week’s Patriots victory, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed are getting healthy at just the right time. If the Ravens D can duplicate its effort from the first Colts game this season in which Manning was intercepted twice and the Colts rushing attack was limited to 76 total yards, we very well could be discussing a second consecutive Ravens AFC title game berth.

The Ravens are due. Sometimes, playoff success comes down to good old-fashioned karma. Here’s why fate will play a part if the Ravens are to win tonight: Baltimore has lost six straight against the Colts including 17-15 at M&T Bank Stadium this season and 15-6 in Baltimore in their last meeting in the playoffs back in the 2006-2007 Divisional playoffs. The last time these teams played in Indianapolis (which happened in 2008), the Colts defeated the Ravens 31-3 in an ugly game for Ravens fans.

But, don’t forget that the Ravens had a similarly ominous losing streak against the Patriots before last weekend’s shellacking and New England hadn’t lost a home playoff game since the 70’s. In addition, don’t forget that this is rookie Colts head coach Jim Caldwell’s first playoff match-up. Sure, Manning is the team but Caldwell will have to make some key decisions down the stretch. How will he hold up in the playoff spotlight?