Fan Bias

The UFC held its pre-fight weigh-ins for UFC 109 today at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. For those of you who weren’t there live to witness the fighters get set for tomorrow night’s card and for those of you weren’t able to catch the live online stream, here are the weigh-in results as well as my thoughts on the fights specifically and the card in general.

Randy Couture (205) vs. Mark Coleman (205) — PPV

My thoughts: Both Couture and Coleman are physical specimens and would put men twenty years younger to shame with their bodies. However, I can’t see the winner of this one being a contender for the 205 pound title when there are so many other accomplished fighters in what is the UFC’s deepest division. Coleman was impressive in his last bout against Stephen Bonnar but can he escape Couture’s clinch and keep his back away from the cage? If not, Couture should earn a much-needed convincing victory, which ”The Natural” hasn’t had since he defeated Gabriel Gonzaga back in 2007. Five to ten years ago this certainly would have been a veritable mega-fight.

Nate Marquardt (186) vs. Chael Sonnen (185) — PPV

My thoughts: This is the one fight on the card that has title ramifications as the winner should square off against the winner of the Anderson Silva-Vitor Belfort title bout later this year. While Sonnen was impressive in his two highest profile bouts against Paulo Filho in the WEC, I simply can’t see him defeating Marquardt because Marquardt is superior in all facets of the game. I also believe that Marquardt has the tools and the mental fortitude to give Anderson Silva a true challenge in what would be a rematch.

Mike Swick (171) vs. Paulo Thiago (170) — PPV

My thoughts: Since Thiago’s shocking debut upset of Josh Koscheck he’s been less than spectacular inside the Octagon. Swick, on the other hand, must regroup after losing a shot at the title with a loss to Dan Hardy in his previous bout. Both men are fighting to stay relevant in the upper ranks of the UFC’s welterweight division.

Demian Maia (186) vs. Dan Miller (185) — PPV

My thoughts: Maia’s upward trajectory came to a screeching halt in his last fight — a quick KO loss to Marquardt. In Miller, he faces an opponent whose style should present a favorable match-up for the Brazilian BJJ ace. Miller’s best hope is keeping the fight standing. Otherwise history dictates that Maia could win in spectacular fashion. Regardless, Maia is going to have to figure out a way to eventually beat upper-echelon all-around fighters before he can even think of a title shot.

Matt Serra (169) vs. Frank Trigg (171) — PPV

My thoughts: Like Couture-Coleman, this is another fight that will be fun to watch but has very little impact on the welterweight standings. All four of the elders on this card are tremendous ambassadors for the sport and these sorts of match-ups between old-school legends usually don’t disappoint. So, sit back and enjoy this one and don’t worry too much about what it means in the bigger picture.

Mac Danzig (156) vs. Justin Buchholz (156) – Spike TV

My thoughts: I had high hopes for Danzig after he won the TUF 6 title in the welterweight division but he’s now lost three in a row and really needs a victory at UFC 109 to justify future PPV card consideration. Buchholz might be just the remedy for Danzig’s ills as he, too, enters the bout with a losing UFC record, sitting at 1-3 inside the Octagon.

Melvin Guillard (155) vs. Ronys Torres (156) – Spike TV

My thoughts: Guillard is a talented but mercurial fighter who loves to stand and bang but has in the past disparaged the notion of the ground game. So, it’s no surprise that all four of his losses in the UFC have come by submission, including his last one against Nate Diaz. Guillard is still young but at some point, if he wants to make a move in the lightweight division he’s going to have to prove that he can beat the likes of Torres, who is making his Octagon debut and apparently favors the submission game, according to UFC.com’s profile of him. It’s appropriate that Guillard, the New Orleans native, fights on the same weekend his hometown Saints play in the Super Bowl because he’s going to have to deliver some stand-up fireworks to secure a victory.

Phillipe Nover (155) vs. Rob Emerson (155)

My thoughts: It’s interesting that Joe Rogan mistakenly introduced Nover as the TUF 8 champ during the weigh-in introductions because Nover’s fortunes in the UFC have turned since that season-ending loss to Efrain Escudero. Since then, Nover has lost his only non-TUF fight in the Octagon and also suffered a medical issue that prevented him from fighting his last fight. Let’s hope he is healthy again because I still have high hopes for Nover as a future star in the lightweight division, especially if he’s been able to add a wrestling base to his Muay Thai and BJJ foundations.

Brian Stann (205) vs. Phil Davis (205)

My thoughts: Stann is a tremendous story given his military service in defense of this country. However, I haven’t been terribly impressed with him inside the cage. Although he is a former WEC light heavyweight champ, I found his game to be rather one-dimensional and always thought he looked robotic and stiff standing up (even though that’s his strength.) Davis is a youngster in the sport but he has a superior collegiate wrestling pedigree as a four-time All-American and 2008 national champ at Penn State. I saw Davis fight last year at a UWC event and he was very impressive, winning by first round TKO. I see Davis winning in his UFC debut, especially if he can assert himself with strong takedowns.

Tim Hague (263) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (263)

My thoughts: The heavyweight division is now stocked with up-and-coming talent but these two big boys are both coming off TKO losses. Hague lost in a UFC record seven seconds to Todd Duffee his last time in the cage while Tuchscherer lost to Gabriel Gonzaga via first round TKO. I’m especially intrigued by Tuchscherer because he’s a Brock Lesnar training partner. I have to think going up against the UFC heavyweight champ in practice everyday is going to make you a tough out anytime inside the Octagon.

Rolles Gracie (247) vs. Joey Beltran (238)

My thoughts: Both of these fighters are making their UFC debuts so I don’t know much about either one. Rolles might be the biggest Gracie around and not surprisingly his strength is listed as BJJ on UFC.com. Beltran’s profile, on the other hand, states that he has heavy hands. I also happen to think Beltran has a clever nickname — he calls himself “The Mexecutioner.” So, on the surface this matchup would appear to be a classic contrast in styles, but hopefully we’ll learn a little more about both fighters during this bout.

Final thoughts: I consider UFC 109 to be a B+ card by UFC standards. Similar to UFC 108, which didn’t live up to previous New Year’s Day cards, UFC 109 doesn’t live up to previous Super Bowl weekend cards because it lacks a true mega-fight (think back to last year’s GSP-BJ Penn main event on Super Bowl weekend.) Instead, what we as fans get is a strong card with a lot of very good fights (in fact, I’m more interested in the dark card fights in terms of evaluating up-and-coming talent.) While the Couture-Coleman and Serra-Trigg fights serve up venerable names who will be prominent in the annals of the sport, neither fight should have contender ramifications in either the light heavyweight or welterweight divisions, respectively. In fact, the only contender-worthy fight on the card is the Marquardt-Sonnen fight.