Fan Bias

Super Bowl XLIV (Did I get that alphabet-jumble right? It’s 2010 people! We live in America, not the Roman Empire! Let’s just use numbers, shall we?) is Sunday and I must say, this match-up pitting the Saints and the Colts has me more excited than I’ve been for the big game in a long time. Don’t get me wrong: the last two Super Bowls have been fantastic, down-to-the-final gun affairs but this one holds the promise of two number one seeds, both with prolific offenses and elite QB’s, going toe-to-toe in a back-and-forth game that might literally come down to the last possession. Both teams started the season 13-0 (the Colts actually extended that to 14-0) and both have now had two bye weeks in the last month. In other words, I’m anticipating absolutely the best effort from both in a game for the ages.

But, in the end, when all the hype has died down and the teams step onto the South Florida sod, only one team can emerge victorious. Ever since this match-up was set, I’ve been firm in my belief that the Saints will eke out a victory. I’ve tried to break down the game to explain why (but rest assured, I haven’t put any money down on the strength of this conviction.)

Offense: Push

The Saints were the number one total offense during the course of the regular season, with the Colts sitting at ninth. But, let there be no doubt the outcome of this game will hinge on the arms of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Both passers have a strong complement of receivers they trust and both put up big numbers with the Colts the number two passing team in the NFL and the Saints 10 yards worse per game at number four. I like the Colts’ top end receivers, especially Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark as well as their young WRs Garcon and Collie, who have really come on this season, but generally speaking the Saints have more receivers to throw out on the field and you always have to account for Reggie Bush coming out of the backfield. If I really had to choose, I might be tempted to pick the Colts on the strength of Manning but overall it’s just too close to call.

Defense: Saints

Neither of these defenses are stalwarts, given that both placed in the bottom half of the league during the regular season (which is why I’m expecting a high-scoring game), but a couple of things I saw in the postseason have me favoring the Saints on this side of the ball. First, New Orleans faced two of the more prolific offenses in the league during the playoffs in Arizona and Minnesota (both of whom also happened to be division winners.) The Saints held the Cardinals to 14 points and forced five turnovers against the Vikings. In addition, it was clear that the Saints were intent on rushing the passer and did so in both games with devastating results.

The Colts defense, on the other hand, faced two relatively weak offenses in the playoffs, going against the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Both opponents were led by young, inexperienced quarterbacks and both opponents were also the lowest seeded teams in the AFC. So, it’s difficult to read too much into the Colts defensive performances in those game. In fact, I thought Jets QB Mark Sanchez found quite a few holes in the Colts defense in the first half of the AFC Championship game. And, I imagine Brees will figure out a way to do the same for the entire game.

Special Teams: Saints

Both Saints K John Carney and Colts K Matt Stover (how much does seeing that irk you, Ravens fans?) are steady veteran kickers, neither of whom will boot away the game for either of their respective teams. So, the reason I give the special teams edge to the Saints is the Reggie Bush factor. In the open field, Bush may be the most dangerous player on either side of the ball. On the other hand, if he fumbles like he did against the Vikings, the balance could very well swing to the Colts. But, Bush has been in a lot of big games in his life so I see him rising to the occasion and breaking off a big return at some point in the game.

Karma & Intangibles: Saints

While I think the stats and the analysis slightly favor the Saints, you know a Ravens fan like me is going to give New Orleans the upper hand based on karma. First of all, the Colts are truly a Baltimore team and the  NFL should have never allowed the colors or the logo to leave this city. At some point, Indianapolis will have to pay for this indiscretion (so why not on the biggest stage in all of American sports?)

But, even beyond that pettiness, there are also positive reasons that favor a Saints victory. While Manning seems to be a great person with a dry sense of humor and is unquestionably one of the best QBs of all time, Brees, based on everything I’ve read, has made an impact both on and off the field in a city that was thrashed by Hurricane Katrina almost five years ago. How can you not root for someone who has endeavored against long odds to not just be the best at what he does professionally but has also become part of the community that embraces him and has so generously given himself to that community?

Manning has his Super Bowl ring (and will probably one day own all the career NFL passing records.) I’m hoping that Super Bowl XLIV is the day Brees earns his.

My prediction: Saints win 34-27 with the MVP going to Drew Brees