Last year, Vasquez enjoyed a fine junior season that resulted in serious thoughts of leaving early for the NBA and also created quite a bit of preseason hype for the Venezualan prior to this season. But, Vasquez has been a disappointment so far this year and I wonder if the team would be better served if the offense no longer runs through him.

The Terps are an unimpressive 1-3 against quality teams this year (with the lone win coming at Indiana) and although Vasquez’s point production has increased as the season has worn on, one thing has become clear — he’s more often than not a liability on the offensive end. He’s shooting under 35% for the season including a paltry 28% shooting on three-point attempts. What’s even more disturbing is his 3.6 turnovers per game, especially for a player who seems to touch the ball more than anyone else on the team.

But, it’s not even the quantity of missed shots and mistakes that’s the most bothersome — it’s the timing of these plays that hurts the most. While I don’t have the stats on this, it certainly has seemed to me in the games that I’ve watched that Vasquez has rarely made a shot or the right decision when his team has needed it the most. Instead, we’ve seen him frequently brick three point shots or throw the ball away to kill promising rallies.

Add to Vasquez’s woes the fact that sophomore guard Sean Mosley has established himself as the team’s best all-around player in the early-going and the fact that the team has real front-court depth this year and I think Greivis would best help the team in a new capacity — as the first man off the bench.

The senior would benefit from sitting on the bench as the game starts just to get a read on its flow. The team would benefit from his unbridled energy and passion, which are perfect in short, measured doses. He would also give the Terps a fairly daunting second five.

Last year, the Terps needed Vasquez to touch the ball a lot and make plays because the team had little in the way of other scorers, especially in the front court. But, this year, PF Landon Milbourne has continued to progress into the team’s most consistent and dependable big man, while freshman Jordan Williams gives the team a rapidly improving big body to rotate with the now-playing junior Dino Gregory. If anything, this year’s team may be poised to think inside-out rather than outside-in.

In addition, fellow senior guard Eric Hayes continues to make threes and — unlike Vasquez – understands his limitations as a ball-handler, passer, and shooter.

In other words, the teams doesn’t need Vasquez to take over games like he did last year (in fact, I would make Mosley the go-to player in crunch time). Coach Williams just needs him to play within himself in order for the team to succeed.

I would replace Vasquez with junior Adrian Bowie in the starting lineup. While I believe fellow junior Cliff Tucker has more upside than Bowie, he’s prone to making more mistakes and like Vasquez has a game that is perfectly suited to coming off the bench. Bowie is steady — even if not spectacular — and that’s all the team needs.

For the Terps to return to the NCAA tourney this year, Vasquez’s senior season can’t — unfortunately for him — be a showcase for NBA scouts. Instead, it has to be one in which he shows an understanding of a changed role on the team. That role is a reduced one compared to that of previous seasons but it’s also the one that will give the Terps the best chance of enjoying success.

Now, have we seen enough to know how this team is going to perform against the tougher competition that awaits? Definitely not. But if you look at the past few performances in the proper context, I think a few storylines have begun to emerge that will be worth watching.

Collectively, I’m really enjoying watching the way this team plays (I’ve watched just about five out of six halves so far.) There’s intensity, good passing, and a balance that I don’t think we’ve seen with the team in a long time. The team has also shown a killer instinct and not allowed teams to hang around late into the second half. In fact, all their games have essentially been over shortly after halftime if not earlier. And, there’s no doubt that having a legitimate post presence (even if in the form of freshmen) has already helped this team.

The Big Men

After attending the Terps’ open scrimmage a few weeks ago, I wrote that James Padgett was the more developed of the two freshman bigs. I was wrong. While Padgett is quicker and more explosive, he doesn’t have the game around the basket that fellow frosh Jordan Williams is quickly developing.

Padgett will eventually make a fine James Gist-like PF for the Terps but Williams is already well on his way to being Coach Williams’ new Lonny Baxter. Williams is physical and eats up space down low, he’s shown a good ability to score around the basket and just as importantly, he’s hitting just under 67% of his free throws. He’ll want to improve on that figure but it’s a good start considering his style of play will result in frequent trips to the foul line during his college career. Another good sign is that Williams leads the team in rebounding with 7 per game, which shows that he’s already asserting himself by doing the dirty work down low.

Speaking of free throws, that’s an area Padgett is going to have to work on. He’s only hitting a third of his free throws right now and that’s not going to cut it, especially if he continues having problems finishing around the basket in non-dunking situations. Opposing teams would rather foul him than let him get the easy two points. And, I’ve always felt that the best college teams are also the ones that finish the job at the charity stripe.

The Veterans

While the two freshman post players have played very well considering their lack of experience, the best veteran players so far are clearly Landon Milbourne, Eric Hayes, and Sean Mosley, in that order.

Milbourne, who strikes me as being a natural SF, has taken to playing PF, mostly by necessity. And, he’s shown in the first three games that he’s going to be a handful for any PF guarding him given his SF skills and quickness. Milbourne is a classic four-year player, who has improved steadily in his first three years and appears poised to bust out with a tremendous senior year. He’s currently averaging 16.7 points along with 6.3 rebounds this season. But, what’s impressed me most with Milbourne is the way he’s scoring. He’s always been deft around the basket and had good mid-range touch. But, last night against New Hampshire, he shot two from downtown and had another bucket from just inside the three-point line. If Milbourne can continue to consistently hit the long-range shot, he will be unstoppable this year.

Hayes continues to be a steady force, hitting 57% from three-point range en route to scoring 13.3 points per game this season. He’s also a solid ball handler who seems more inclined this year to try to penetrate and score off the dribble. He seems to be playing with confidence and is continuing to build off the momentum from the end of his junior season. He’s not a point guard and not a slashing shooting guard but he’s a capable outside shooting threat who appears to understand his role on the team.

Mosley has been the most pleasant surprise thusfar. A prolific scorer in his high school career in Baltimore, he got off to a slow start his freshman year at Maryland, shooting only 37% from the field. In the early going this season, I’ve already seen much improvement in Mosley’s shooting. Although his average will go down as the opponents get tougher, I like his shot selection so far and that’s best illustrated by his current 70% shooting. At 6′4″, Mosley is a do-everything combo player who I’m sure Coach Williams loves having on the floor as much as possible. And, the stats bear that out. Mosley is currently averaging 13.7 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.3 rpg, and 2.7 spg. That’s an all-around game and not bad at all for the sophomore whose role will undoubtedly expand as the season wears on. Opposing teams will have trouble matching up with Mosley (similarly to Milbourne) because of everything he can do at his size.

Greivis Vasquez

Unfortunately for Terps fans, the one player who came into 2009 with the most hype, Greivis Vasquez, has not had a very good start to the season. His outside shooting has been poor and, quite frankly, he’s been a non-factor for most of the first three games. He has yet to break double digits scoring in any game, which is worrisome considering the level of competition. However, Vasquez is showing his maturity by helping the team in other ways. He continues to play PG, bringing the ball up with authority and leading the team in assists with 7 apg (including 13 against Charleston Southern.) He’s also kept turnovers at a minimum. Regardless, I’m still worried because Vasquez is shooting barely above 30%, including only 25% from three. He’ll certainly get his points slashing in the lane but I think Coach Williams is going to have to make sure that when Vasquez is having an off night he doesn’t hog the ball and so far he hasn’t. I’m a huge Vasquez fan and I love his emotion and desire to win, but this year’s team has enough firepower and enough good shooters that it doesn’t need for the offense to run through Vasquez like it did last season.

The Bench

Adrian Bowe is the Terps’ best bench backcourt player. I like that he stays within the framework of the offense and also plays under control. He also doesn’t make many mistakes in terms of decision making, although his shooting percentage does need to come up. While fellow backcourt mate Cliff Tucker has averaged more points than Bowie and is shooting very well (mostly by finishing close to the basket), Bowie is also averaging more turnovers than assists and that won’t cut it.

Good news coming out of College Park this week is that junior center Dino Gregory will return to action December 12 after being suspended for the first part of the season for unspecified team violations. While this was supposed to be a breakout year for the Baltimore product, it will be interesting to see how Coach Williams now handles the frontcourt situation. Williams has an abundance of riches when it comes to big men. And it’s possible that Jordan Williams may have entrenched himself as the starter by the time Gregory returns. Either way, it’s a good problem to have and Gregory will certainly play a lot this year. I do wonder if Coach Williams will play around with the lineup and go bigger, moving Milbourne to SF and putting either Gregory or Padgett in at PF.

2010

Although the 2009 season is barely under way, recruiting for the 2010 season is in full swing. After all, the Terps will lose major contributors at the end of the season with Milbourne, Hayes, and Vasquez all seniors this year.

But, have no fear Turtle fans. The Terps’ 2010 recruiting class is rated in the top 20 by practically every recruiting service and the team still has one more scholarship to offer.

Prior to this week, Coach Williams already had a signed letter of intent from PG Terrell Stoglin and verbal commitments from SF Mychal Parker and SF Terrence Ross. But, this week the team also got a verbal commitment from PF Ashton Pankey, who comes out of the prestigious St. Anthony’s program in New Jersey. From what I’ve read, Pankey looks like he’s a typical Terps big man — athletic and rebounds well, but a project on the offensive end.

Unfortunately, consensus top 10 PF recruit Tobias Harris, who had Maryland on his short list, decided to commit to Tennessee late this week but I’m very pleased with next year’s incoming class and even more pleased with the direction this program has taken after a couple of anxiety-inducing seasons. I’m predicting another run of NCAA berths and more for the rejuvenated Terps’ men’s program.

The scrimmage was separated into two 20-minute games between red and black. Coach Gary Williams (wearing a neck brace) observed the action from the court while assistants coached each squad. There’s not much that can be garnered from an intra-squad scrimmage like today’s and you realize just how far away March Madness is but it was fun to watch the team in action after a summer of anticipation.

The starting lineups for the first twenty minutes were as follows:

Red: Greivis Vasquez (21), Landon Milbourne (1), Adrian Bowie (22), Jordan Williams (20), Cliff Tucker (24)

Black: Eric Hayes (5), Jin Soo Choi (11), Sean Mosley (14), Dino Gregory (33), James Padgett (35)

The black team was clearly the better team during this twenty minute period and won.

For the second twenty-minute period, the lineups were switched up a bit:

Red: Eric Hayes (5), Greivis Vasquez (21), Sean Mosley (14), Jordan Williams (20), James Padget (35)

Black: Jin Soo Choi (11), Landon Milbourne (1), Adrian Bowie (22), Cliff Tucker (24), Dino Gregory (33)

Ten minutes into the second half of the scrimmage, Landon Milbourne switched with James Padgett giving the red team a lineup that would appear to be very close to what the Terps’ starting lineup will be when the season begins and this showed as the red squad won the second twenty-minute period.

My Thoughts

Coming into this season, the Terps had an abundance of depth in the backcourt positions especially with the return of Greivis Vasquez, who tested the NBA draft waters early in the summer. The real questions about this team centered around the frontcourt. Last year’s team featured only one big man — Dave Neal — who made a significant impact and he was really more comfortable stepping out and shooting the three, which he did at opportune times throughout the season. Dino Gregory started to show flashes down low as the season wore on.

However, with Neal graduating, much of the Terps’ hopes for success in the frontcourt this year rest on the development of two freshman bigs – Jordan Williams and James Padgett — who join veteran Gregory. Gregory showed good skills around the basket and some nice touch today in solidifying his position as a starter.

Based on what I saw during the scrimmage, Padgett is the freshman who will contribute early and often. He showed a lot of quickness, a good nose for the ball, and some nice moves around the basket. What he needs to work on is finishing but he seemed to get better at that as the scrimmage wore on. Padgett is the thinner of the two frosh, but as he grows into his body, I predict he’s going to be a beast in the ACC. Regardless, I can see Coach Williams being comfortable putting Padgett in as a starter in the frontcourt.

Williams is a project. He wasn’t nearly as assertive as Padgett during the 40 minute session and seemed to disappear at times. However, he also went through spurts where he was active and contributed. He’s a big body who will clearly help with defense and rebounding early on. Offensively, he’ll be a work in progress though he should be able to use his frame to clean up with putbacks around the basket. Williams did surprise me late in the second half with a nice face-up sideline jumper from 10-15 feet away.

Another key for this team is outside shooting. To this end, Eric Hayes looks like he’s going to continue to be the team’s best three point shooter. However, Jin Soo Choi drained a couple from near-three point range as did Adrian Bowie. Vasquez also contributed his own three as did Sean Mosley (who provided steady effort and contributed some nice buckets inside.)

Choi is a very intriguing prospect in his second year. Along with his outside touch, he showed flashes of a player who can be an effective slasher off the dribble and who can make plays passing as well. Could he be next year’s Vasquez? Maybe, but a lot will depend on his decision-making ability and confidence. I hope we see the 6′8″ sophomore get more meaningful playing time this season.

Landon Milbourne was his usual steady self today at small forward. Nothing spectacular but nice work on the receiving end of passes near the basket and a good mid-range jump shoot. He should benefit quite a bit from the presence of additional big men this season, allowing him to float around a bit more.

However, the unquestioned catalyst for the Terps is undoubtedly the 6′6″ Venezuelan senior, Vasquez. He played under control this afternoon but also slashed to the basket several times and finished with his trademark tough off-balance, awkward looking shots. He also scored with a floater running towards the basket and had the play of the game during a fast break when he faked a behind-the-back pass to running mate Sean Mosley before finishing with a layup.

Vasquez is a preseason All-ACC pick, ACC player of the year candidate, and national player of the year candidate. He has the potential to cap off his brilliant Terps career with a player of the year type season. I believe his decision to come back for his senior year will benefit him in next year’s NBA draft (where I could see him going in the top 15 if he continues to progress) while also benefiting the Terps with a deep run in the NCAA tournament. Vasquez can truly do it all and if his long-range game is improved this season he could be truly unstoppable, which would put him in the company of Juan Dixon, Steve Francis, Joe Smith, and Walt Williams as one of the greats during the Coach Williams era.

Maybe the biggest question heading into the season is whether senior guard Eric Hayes will come off the bench again or start. Either way, he’ll play starter minutes and is a key to the team’s success. Another big question is, will Coach Williams use a lot of three-guard lineups or try to go with one of the freshman bigs as a starter or playing significant minutes?

Here’s how I see the rotation playing out:

Starters

G – Sean Mosley

G – Greivis Vasquez

SF – Landon Milbourne

PF – James Padgett

C – Dino Gregory

Off the bench

G – Eric Hayes

G – Adrian Bowie

G – Cliff Tucker

PF – Jordan Williams

SF – Jin Soo Choi

Schedule

The Terps start the season this week with a game against Indiana University of Pennsylvania. There are no gimme’s in college basketball anymore but the Terps’ first real challenge should come later in November with the EA Sports Maui Invitational, where the team will face Chaminade in the first round before going up against either Cincinnati (and former Terps target Lance Stephenson) or Chaminade in the second game. Teams on the other side of the bracket are Colorado, Gonzaga, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

Before the ACC season gets into full gear, the Terps will face Indiana in Bloomington in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge as well as Villanova in DC. Another interesting pre-ACC matchup is a date with Florida Atlantic (led by former GW coach Mike Jarvis) at Comcast Center.

Predictions

The Terps men are ranked 26th in the first AP poll of the year. They were picked to finish 5th in the ACC. I don’t think either of these rankings do justice to what I consider to be a prototypical Gary Williams team — the kind we haven’t seen in a while. Beyond the obvious backcourt depth and experience, the Terps have some skilled big men again and I really like the balance on this team. I predict the Terps will finish in the top 15 nationally and third in the ACC. I see a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament and a run into the second weekend in the tournament.

The season hasn’t begun quite yet but I think it’s going to be a good one for the recently embattled Coach Williams and his rejuvenated men’s team and I’m quite excited.

(All photos from today’s scrimmage taken by me.)