But, in the end, when all the hype has died down and the teams step onto the South Florida sod, only one team can emerge victorious. Ever since this match-up was set, I’ve been firm in my belief that the Saints will eke out a victory. I’ve tried to break down the game to explain why (but rest assured, I haven’t put any money down on the strength of this conviction.)

Offense: Push

The Saints were the number one total offense during the course of the regular season, with the Colts sitting at ninth. But, let there be no doubt the outcome of this game will hinge on the arms of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Both passers have a strong complement of receivers they trust and both put up big numbers with the Colts the number two passing team in the NFL and the Saints 10 yards worse per game at number four. I like the Colts’ top end receivers, especially Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark as well as their young WRs Garcon and Collie, who have really come on this season, but generally speaking the Saints have more receivers to throw out on the field and you always have to account for Reggie Bush coming out of the backfield. If I really had to choose, I might be tempted to pick the Colts on the strength of Manning but overall it’s just too close to call.

Defense: Saints

Neither of these defenses are stalwarts, given that both placed in the bottom half of the league during the regular season (which is why I’m expecting a high-scoring game), but a couple of things I saw in the postseason have me favoring the Saints on this side of the ball. First, New Orleans faced two of the more prolific offenses in the league during the playoffs in Arizona and Minnesota (both of whom also happened to be division winners.) The Saints held the Cardinals to 14 points and forced five turnovers against the Vikings. In addition, it was clear that the Saints were intent on rushing the passer and did so in both games with devastating results.

The Colts defense, on the other hand, faced two relatively weak offenses in the playoffs, going against the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Both opponents were led by young, inexperienced quarterbacks and both opponents were also the lowest seeded teams in the AFC. So, it’s difficult to read too much into the Colts defensive performances in those game. In fact, I thought Jets QB Mark Sanchez found quite a few holes in the Colts defense in the first half of the AFC Championship game. And, I imagine Brees will figure out a way to do the same for the entire game.

Special Teams: Saints

Both Saints K John Carney and Colts K Matt Stover (how much does seeing that irk you, Ravens fans?) are steady veteran kickers, neither of whom will boot away the game for either of their respective teams. So, the reason I give the special teams edge to the Saints is the Reggie Bush factor. In the open field, Bush may be the most dangerous player on either side of the ball. On the other hand, if he fumbles like he did against the Vikings, the balance could very well swing to the Colts. But, Bush has been in a lot of big games in his life so I see him rising to the occasion and breaking off a big return at some point in the game.

Karma & Intangibles: Saints

While I think the stats and the analysis slightly favor the Saints, you know a Ravens fan like me is going to give New Orleans the upper hand based on karma. First of all, the Colts are truly a Baltimore team and the  NFL should have never allowed the colors or the logo to leave this city. At some point, Indianapolis will have to pay for this indiscretion (so why not on the biggest stage in all of American sports?)

But, even beyond that pettiness, there are also positive reasons that favor a Saints victory. While Manning seems to be a great person with a dry sense of humor and is unquestionably one of the best QBs of all time, Brees, based on everything I’ve read, has made an impact both on and off the field in a city that was thrashed by Hurricane Katrina almost five years ago. How can you not root for someone who has endeavored against long odds to not just be the best at what he does professionally but has also become part of the community that embraces him and has so generously given himself to that community?

Manning has his Super Bowl ring (and will probably one day own all the career NFL passing records.) I’m hoping that Super Bowl XLIV is the day Brees earns his.

My prediction: Saints win 34-27 with the MVP going to Drew Brees

Given that I’ve written on this blog and in the past about two sports — MMA and football — that are undoubtedly violent, I thought it was the responsible thing to do to acknowledge the growing discourse regarding head trauma (particularly in the form of concussions) in sports, especially in football.  Not only are publications like Time shining light on the topic, but Congress has even become involved. So, I hope readers of this blog click on the links above to read the Time articles and also search the internet for more information.

While much of the current clamor revolves around football because of its importance in American culture, the fact is the discussion could certainly apply to MMA, boxing, and hockey, where head injuries are also not uncommon. In fact, I wonder whether or not repeated heading of a soccer ball could also cause similar injuries. At the very least, all sports should be more closely examined in light of new evidence.

Before I go on, I must say up front that I’m not a medical doctor and have not conducted any independent research on head trauma in sports or otherwise. Instead, I count myself as a fan of sports in which head trauma is apparently real and has apparently led to long-term problems in the lives of a number of participants of those sports. Because I’m not only a fan but someone who also writes about such sports, I think I have a further obligation to at least increase awareness of the discussion amongst those who read my work.

In reality, it’s somewhat of a catch-22 for millions of fans of violent but legal sports like football and MMA. Is it possibly to cheer and worry at the same time? In fact, it may be time to do both, if you read the anecdotes of athletes and look at the growing mountain of data.

What complicates the issue with head trauma is that its true problems arise over a long period of time – over the course of numerous blows — and are thus not as obvious as broken bones, bruises, or cuts. This insidious nature of brain injury has made it possible to overlook it for so many years.

But, now with athletes becoming bigger, stronger, and faster and with collisions becoming more dramatic, it appears that football in particular has reached a tipping point with concussions.

I’ve come to believe that part of the problem with football is the false sense of security that all the padding and the helmet give fans and participants. While this gear is certainly protective, it also emboldens players to hit harder and take greater risks. By contrast, rugby, which I played a little a few years ago, is relatively sparse in terms of protective gear. The lack of substantial padding in rugby — as well as the rule book — serve to promote proper tackling form.

Even so, I certainly saw my share of tackles made on the rugby pitch where the tackler used poor form (for example not tackling with the head up) or where the ball carrier led with his head down. Not to mention what I imagine were fairly violent impacts by the behemoths in the scrum.

So, I cannot even fathom the sort of collisions our country’s best athletes are party to beginning in their teen years with high school football. Beyond that, I can’t possibly begin to understand what the repeated blows to the head over the next 20 or so years have done to the most talented of these players.

In MMA, regulatory bodies stipulate a mandatory rest period for a fighter who has suffered a concussion during a bout. Yet, in football, at least until recently, players who have suffered concussions have been known to return to the field, not just a week later, but even later in that same game. And, that’s according to the stories we’ve been told. How many stories are untold?

The Time articles present some solutions to the problems. I certainly don’t have the expertise to know what’s best for these athletes, but I’m glad some of this country’s best minds are trying to tackle the problem. I admire the bravery of football players, especially in the face of such dangerous situations. But, as much as I am a fanatic of violent sports such as MMA and football, I would also be in favor of any rules that make athletes safer and protect them both now and later, once they’ve retired. I don’t believe the money and the fame justify injuries that can apparently lead to the debilitation seen in many of these athletes.

And, as much as I love the sports, given what I currently know, it would be difficult for me to allow my son or daughter to participate. Not because I don’t think these are noble endeavors. But, rather because of fear for their well-being.

While team goals may not have necessarily been met during the 9-7 regular season, there were certainly individual Ravens who broke out or asserted themselves as worthy of recognition. With that said, let’s take a look back on the season as a whole, as I hand out FanBias.com’s end of season awards.

Offensive MVP: RB Ray Rice

This may be the easiest pick of all. The second-year stud out of Rutgers established himself as a dual-threat star in the league with his breakout performance this year. Shifty and quick, Rice picked through defenses all year both as a runner and as a pass receiver. He led the team in receptions with 78 and rushing yards with 1,339 and combined for over 2,000 yards rushing and receiving for the season. The offense was clearly built around him and justifiably so. For his efforts, Rice earned his first Pro Bowl berth. In fact, remove him from the mix and you have to wonder where the Ravens would have gotten their offensive spark from.

Offensive Newcomer: OT Michael Oher

The Ravens found themselves a gem with the 23rd pick in the 2009 NFL Draft when Ozzie Newsome and crew picked Oher to be the team’s offensive tackle of the future. The rookie out of Ole Miss rewarded the Ravens by starting every game this season and by showing versatility, playing both right tackle (11 games) and left tackle (5 games) due to injury to Jared Gaither. Oher was a steal so late in the first round as illustrated by the fact that he came in second in the AP’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He has already given notice that he is one of the team’s top linemen and should become a perennial Pro Bowler in years to come. And, as if that’s not enough, Oher has an inspirational life story to tell, one which has been captured in book and film.

Offensive There’s No “I” in Team Award: RB Willis McGahee

There’s no doubt about it, McGahee is a starting-caliber running back. Unfortunately, with the Ravens, he plays behind a potential All-World do-it-all back in Ray Rice. So, this year, the apparently healthy McGahee had to wait patiently on the sideline for his number to be called. As far I’m concerned, his number wasn’t called often or consistently enough, but when asked to do so, McGahee stepped up time and time again. He scored 12 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns to lead the team with 14 total TD’s during the regular season. And, while the numbers are good, who can forget his long-distance rumble against the Oakland Raiders in the final must-win game of the regular season, a play in which McGahee tossed a defender aside with a vicious stiff arm? While McGahee’s future with the Ravens is uncertain, the man clearly has plenty left in his legs (especially given how sparingly he’s been used over the last two years) and hopefully the team can keep him. McGahee proved this year that he’s a team-first player and I never saw a report in which he publicly expressed any dissatisfaction with his role.

Defensive MVP: LB Ray Lewis

In his 14th season, the 34-year-old Lewis shows no signs of slowing down. Just a few years ago, some were wondering whether Lewis was nearing the end of his career but for the second straight season the University of Miami product started all 16 regular season games and was his usual force in the middle. No Rex Ryan? No Bart Scott? No problem as Lewis led the team in tackles again (with 134) and earned yet another Pro Bowl spot. Lewis is the glue that not only holds the defense together, but is clearly the inspiration for the team and this football-mad town. There may not be a bigger impact player in the NFL over the last decade than Lewis and whenever his career does end (shudder) he should go down as one of the top players in the league ever. While he may have lost a step, Lewis continues to be one of the smartest and most well-prepared players on the field and seems to know where every play is going. His importance to the team cannot be overstated and I rue the day Lewis decides to finally hang up the cleats. He has earned every on-field accolade ever heaped on him and has made the players around him better, which may be the ultimate compliment for any player in any team sport..

Defensive Newcomer: CB Lardarius Webb

A third-round pick out of Nicholls State, Webb only came on as a defensive regular later in the season. Initially the team’s kickoff returner, where he played quite admirably and even scored a touchdown, Webb’s true value came when he was inserted into the starting defensive backfield due to injury. A converted safety, the rookie instantly showed that he was the team’s best cornerback, shoring up a position that experienced quite a bit of tumult over the course of the season. Webb proved not only that he could cover, but also that he could hit hard and tackle, both in pass coverage and in run defense. A season-ending knee injury against the Chicago Bears cut short Webb’s rookie campaign but the first-year man showed enough during his time on the field for me to be optimistic that the Ravens have a shutdown corner in the making. Let’s just hope the coaches don’t continue to use Webb on special teams in years to come.

Special Teams Newcomer: Returner Jalen Parmele

A second year running back stuck on the bench at a tremendously deep position, Parmele got the opportunity to showcase his skills as the team’s kickoff returner late in the season when Lardarius Webb went down with an injury. Decisive and powerful, Parmele provided the team with a spark from the outset. A big man for the position, he nonetheless showed elusiveness and the ability to find holes and make big plays, averaging 31.4 yards per return. That number could have been much higher given that more than a couple of his big returns were called back by penalty. As fans very well know, big plays on special teams can energize the entire team. With Parmele as the team’s kickoff returner, I believe the Ravens have found the man who can provide that spark for years to come. I also hope he can be adapted to become the team’s punt returner as well.

So, here’s why I’m predicting yet another deep Ravens playoff run continuing tonight with a victory over the Colts at Indianapolis. (Am I biased? You bet. But, show me one head coach in the NFL that wants to play these Ravens right now.)

All the pressure is on the Colts. If Indianapolis thought that going 16-0 would add undue pressure on the team heading into the playoffs, I can only imagine the pressure the team must be feeling now after deciding to forego that achievement specifically to get healthy for a Super Bowl run. In other words, the Colts brass decided that making history was less important than winning the Super Bowl. One could argue that those aren’t mutually exclusive propositions but if this team doesn’t win the Super Bowl, then the entire season will have amounted to nothing. At least the 2007-2008 New England Patriots can claim to be the first 18-0 NFL team ever. The Ravens, on the other hand, can play loose, having nothing to lose.

The Colts aren’t very good when they have a bye in the playoffs. In fact, the Colts are 0-4 coming off playoff bye weeks. Whatever the reason, Peyton Manning and crew seem to lose the rhythm they’ve built up over a dominant regular season and fall flat in the playoffs when given time off. This year, the Colts were so dominant they had their division wrapped up early and faced very little competition (outside of the Chargers) for the #1 seed in the AFC. They decided that winning wasn’t important for games 15 and 16, which means the team hasn’t played a meaningful game in about a month.

While regular season dominance is nice, winning the Super Bowl is really all about getting hot at the right time. In fact, the Indy team that won it all in the 2006-2007 season had to play strong through the end of the season and also played wild card weekend, meaning it had no time off during that run. Similarly, these Ravens didn’t clinch a playoff spot until game 16 and have had to play at a high level through the end of the season.

The Ravens are playoff road warriors.  Baltimore is 6-2 in postseason away games in its short history. That includes not only last season’s 2-1 record but also a 2-0 record during their 2000-2001 Super Bowl title run. Clearly (and especially under Harbaugh), this franchise is not intimidated on the road. On the other hand, the Colts are 4-2 at home in the playoffs since 2000, so something’s got to give. With Ravens LB Ray Lewis rallying the troops, I’m betting Baltimore’s us-against-the-world mentality will shine through again on the road.

Joe Flacco is not 100% healthy. While Ravens fans would certainly love to have a QB playing at full strength (and this week he’s argued that he is 100% for this game) reports indicating that Flacco is coping with a hip injury may not be such a bad thing for the Ravens and its fans. Flacco, after all, has struggled against elite teams in his first two seasons. Though he’s been a tremendous game manager and has played well against the NFL’s also-rans, he hasn’t been able to consistently break through against playoff-caliber opponents. So, his supposed injury may be just the excuse coaches need to rely on the Ravens’ true offensive strength — its three-headed monster at running back.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Ravens relied heavily on Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le’Ron McClain in the two must-win games the team faced at the end of the season — week 17 against Oakland and the wild card game against New England. Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves to throw the ball around but the winning formula for the Ravens is and always has been running and defense. And, if Flacco is even a little dinged up, it’s difficult to believe Cameron is going to put the young QB in a position to win the game unless he absolutely has to.

And, here’s even better news. The Colts were 18th in the league during the regular season in total defense and only 24th against the run. They were better against the pass (ranking 14th.) The Ravens, on the other hand, were fifth best in the league running the ball while only ranked 18th passing the ball. In other words, Baltimore would struggle more with an injured Ray Rice than it will without a fully healthy Flacco. All signs (and stats) indicate that the Ravens should run, run, run.

News of the demise of the Ravens D has been greatly exaggerated. Earlier this season, fans wondered what had become of the vaunted Baltimore defense under first year coordinator Greg Mattison. Fans were especially concerned about a lack of rush from the front four and poor coverage in the secondary. Well, the Ravens were a more than respectable eighth against the pass this season while boasting the third best overall defense in the league. And, based on last week’s Patriots victory, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed are getting healthy at just the right time. If the Ravens D can duplicate its effort from the first Colts game this season in which Manning was intercepted twice and the Colts rushing attack was limited to 76 total yards, we very well could be discussing a second consecutive Ravens AFC title game berth.

The Ravens are due. Sometimes, playoff success comes down to good old-fashioned karma. Here’s why fate will play a part if the Ravens are to win tonight: Baltimore has lost six straight against the Colts including 17-15 at M&T Bank Stadium this season and 15-6 in Baltimore in their last meeting in the playoffs back in the 2006-2007 Divisional playoffs. The last time these teams played in Indianapolis (which happened in 2008), the Colts defeated the Ravens 31-3 in an ugly game for Ravens fans.

But, don’t forget that the Ravens had a similarly ominous losing streak against the Patriots before last weekend’s shellacking and New England hadn’t lost a home playoff game since the 70’s. In addition, don’t forget that this is rookie Colts head coach Jim Caldwell’s first playoff match-up. Sure, Manning is the team but Caldwell will have to make some key decisions down the stretch. How will he hold up in the playoff spotlight?

So, I thought I would rank the QBs still left in the playoffs and place them in general tiers. Here’s what I came up with.

Surefire Hall of Famers

These quarterbacks have done it all. They’ve put up impressive regular season numbers; they’ve won playoff games; they’ve won the Super Bowl; and, they’ve won multiple league MVP awards. If their careers were to end today, their fans could make hotel reservations for Canton five years from now. Not surprisingly, these men are also the elder statesmen of the 2009-2010 NFL playoffs.

1. Peyton Manning — Is he the greatest signal-caller ever? One more Super Bowl win would cement that status. Super Bowl winner and four-time NFL MVP.

2. Brett Favre – Maybe the most charismatic and entertaining quarterback (on the field and off) of his generation. Two Super Bowl appearances, one Super Bowl victory, and three-time NFL MVP. He also holds numerous NFL career records including passing TDs, passing yards, and completions.

3. Kurt Warner — There isn’t a better rags to riches story in the NFL in the last 20 years. He’s succeeded with multiple teams, winning with a fun passing style. Three Super Bowl appearances, one Super Bowl victory, and two-time NFL MVP.

Elite Statsheet Stuffers (& Fantasy Gems)

These guys are still young and in the primes of their careers. However, they’ve yet to have that one season that sets them apart from their peers and have yet to win the big one. But, they are fan pleasers and they rack up the wins (and the stats) en route to consistently top notch performances year in and year out. None, in my opinion, are Hall of Famers right now, but let’s see what they do over the next five years.

4. Drew Brees — Has won many a championship for ecstatic fantasy football owners. Despite not being the physically biggest QB around, he’s proven he can spread the ball all over the field. He’s won playoff games, but is now poised to take his career to the next level.

5. Philip Rivers — Gritty, tough, and a winner. He plays with emotion and is now starting to come into his own under Chargers head coach Norv Turner. Could this be the year he wins the Super Bowl and begins his march to the Hall? The Chargers certainly have the team to make that dream a reality.

6. Tony Romo — This season has been a breakthrough for Romo, who’s spent just as much time in the pages of tabloids as he has in the sports section of mainstream newspapers. He won big games in December and last week notched his first playoff victory. He can throw and run and has tantalized Cowboys fans with his potential for years. Now, it seems that Romo just may be ready to put the P word (potential) behind him.

Game Managers

The final two QBs in the playoffs are youngsters in their first two years in the NFL. While both show tremendous upside, they’ve been fortunate to be put in positions where they are not asked to win games, but rather manage them. Both play for teams with remarkably similar blueprints — stingy defenses and stellar multi-pronged running attacks. Think of these guys as young, modern-day Trent Dilfers with upside. But, it’s way too early to know what either of their careers will end up looking like.

7. Joe Flacco — Gets the nod over Sanchez mostly because he’s got an extra year under his belt and has improved somewhat during that year, most importantly landing in the playoffs for the second straight year. While Flacco’s playoff win-loss record is an impressive 3-1 (giving him something neither Aaron Rodgers nor Carson Palmer can claim — a playoff victory), his individual playoff stats are not impressive. While Flacco has shown he can beat the mediocre to bad teams in this league, the next step is to prove that he can play well against the good to great teams. In the meantime, he can enjoy the ride while the Ravens running game and defense carry the day.

8. Mark Sanchez — Only a rookie, Sanchez has had his share of ups and downs in his first NFL season. Down the stretch, however, he’s been steady and made big plays when he’s had to. And, he’s already got a playoff victory under his belt. The Jets are hot at the right time but make no mistake about it, Sanchez is more witness than participant as they make a strong Super Bowl push.

Today is day two of the playoffs, which means two more wild card games. Here are my brief thoughts on Green Bay at Arizona and more detailed thoughts on the Ravens keys to beating the Patriots.

Green Bay at Arizona

Like the Cowboys and Jets, the Packers come into this playoff match-up having blown out their opponents — the Cardinals — the previous week. Granted Arizona had little to play for in their week 17 game but the game was at Arizona, as it is this week. Green Bay is another one of those streaking playoff teams led by one of the hottest young QB’s in the league in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have been very solid in the second half of the season in a very tough division while the Cardinals have been inconsistent in a weak division. Larry Fitzgerald is possibly the best WR in the NFL and the Cardinals got hot playoff time last season but this year I don’t think Arizona can duplicate the magic.

Pick: Packers 30-17

Ravens keys to victory

The game that obviously means the most to me this weekend is the Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots. The Ravens had an up and down regular season, beating the teams they should have beaten and struggling against playoff-caliber opposition. The Ravens went up to New England in week 4 and lost 27-21 in a game that came down to the final moments. I didn’t watch much of that game because I was out of town for a family friend’s wedding but I did catch Clayton’s drop on fourth down near the end zone. While many fans point to that as the play that lost the game, from all accounts, the Ravens made plenty of mistakes throughout the game between penalties and turnovers.

Here’s what I believe Baltimore must do to garner a victory over a very beatable Patriots team that itself has struggled this year and will be without the services of its top receiver, Wes Welker, due to injury:

Rely heavily on the run. The Ravens have two starting caliber RBs in Ray Rice and Willis McGahee and an offensive line that seems more suited to run-blocking than pass-blocking. There’s no reason both RBs shouldn’t get the ball a lot during the game. Even throw in Le’Ron McClain in short yardage situations and try to wear out the Patriots defense early. The less second year Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has to do, the better. Flacco is easily the best Ravens QB prospect ever but he hasn’t shown that he can win games on his own yet, especially against top-notch teams.

Limit mistakes. The Ravens absolutely cannot make as many mental mistakes as they did at Green Bay and at Pittsburgh. New England may not be the dominant team it used to be, but guided by Coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady, it is a savvy team that will take advantage of any mistake by the Ravens and capitalize to win, especially at home. The Ravens need to play perfect football mentally to win this game. That means no dumb penalties and no turnovers. Historically, an overwhelming percentage of teams that lose the turnover battle in the playoffs lose the game as well.

Coach Harbaugh has to win the battle of game management. In a game between two teams that are so evenly matched on the field, the outcome may ultimately come down to the head coach that manages the game better. We all know what Belichick can do — he’s been to four Super Bowls with the Patriots and won three of them. Come playoff time, especially in close games, there’s no coach better. On the other hand, there have been cracks in the armor in recent years. With John Harbaugh, however, the jury is still out. I’ve been skeptical of some of the decisions he’s made since he began coaching Baltimore and have wondered about his early use of timeouts and some of his challenges. Whether those decisions are his fault or the fault of his coordinators, ultimately the buck stops with Harbaugh. Just like the Ravens players must play flawlessly on the field, Harbaugh has to coach flawlessly today for the Ravens to have a shot at advancing.

Defense has to pressure Tom Brady. Something the Ravens have struggled with all season is putting pressure on the opposition quarterback. Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison clearly has a differing philosophy from previous coordinator Rex Ryan but boy was it refreshing watching Jets LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard (both with the Ravens last year along with Ryan) combine to create turmoil in the Bengals backfield yesterday. It reminded me of how the Ravens used to play defense…just last year. With WR Wes Welker out and the Ravens certain to bottle up the Patriots run game, Tom Brady is going to have to pass the ball a lot for the Patriots to win. I hope we see some blitzes and other means of pressuring Brady by the Ravens. If we don’t, it will be a long day for Ravens fans.

Forget about conspiracy theories. The refs are not out to get the Ravens. Almost every penalty that’s been called against the team this year has been legitimate or at the very least an argument could be made for why the penalty was called. So, instead of losing composure or blaming the refs, the Ravens need to focus on playing smart and playing within the rules. The team is talented enough to win against any team in the playoffs, but not if it’s distracted by conspiracy theories.

Ultimately, I’m an optimist, so I think the Ravens will do today what they haven’t really been able to do all season — win a game they aren’t supposed to win. It will take a perfect game to do so but I think Baltimore has one in it.

Pick: Ravens 20-16

As it turns out, while a win would have clinched the Ravens’ ticket to the playoffs, the loss itself didn’t change much. The Ravens still control their destiny heading to Oakland on Sunday and the Steelers still need a lot of help to defend their Super Bowl title.

So, as frustrating as the loss was to witness, here are some reasons why I’m bullish on a strong Ravens run during the NFL’s second season.

1) The Ravens will beat Oakland. John Harbaugh has not been able to get over the hump often against quality teams during his two-year tenure as head coach. However, one thing we know for sure is that a Harbaugh-led squad does not lose to bad teams. So, while traveling across the country is often seen as a recipe for defeat no matter the caliber of team being faced, the Ravens under Harbaugh simply don’t lose when they’re not supposed to. In other words, I’m clearing appointments for next weekend in anticipation of a Baltimore away wild card game.

2) Against the other presumptive AFC playoff teams this year, the Ravens have been more than competitive. Baltimore defeated San Diego earlier this year for the team’s biggest victory of the year. But, the Ravens also narrowly lost to Cincinnati once, they were a Mark Clayton dropped pass near the goal line from having a legit shot against New England, and they nearly defeated Indianapolis at home. The only game against these teams that the Ravens appeared to be manhandled was the second Bengals game and even in that game Baltimore was a Steve Hauschka missed field goal away from being down by 7 with about 5 minutes to go. In other words, not only have the Ravens not been blown out by the AFC’s best, they can rightly believe that all those teams are beatable.

The Ravens will play either Cincinnati or New England away in their wild card game. While both teams beat the Ravens this year and the Bengals have always given the Ravens problems, I’m hoping Baltimore plays Cincinnati. The Bengals have faltered down the stretch this year and don’t have a ton of playoff experience to rely upon. The Pats on the other hand have coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. Enough said.

3) There are no truly dominant teams in the AFC. This point is a follow-up to point 2). The hottest team in the conference right now may very well be the San Diego Chargers. However, the big question is, can a Norv Turner-led team win it all? That certainly remains to be seen and history says no. And, while Indy was flirting with being unbeaten until the recent controversial pulling of starters against the Jets that led to the Colts’ first loss, even Peyton Manning has had to work quite a bit of last minute magic to win a number of those games. In other words, can the Colts be lucky for another 4 or 5 weeks? I don’t think so.

4) Todd Heap rediscovered. The Ravens receiving corps has been much maligned this year. But, one man who has made his presence felt over the last two games is tight end Heap. He’s scored four touchdowns over that the last couple of weeks and has shown strong hands, leaping ability, and athleticism that many had wondered whether he still possessed. Quality play from the tight end position is an NFL quarterback’s best friend, especially in the playoffs. Most defenses simply don’t have someone who can cover a playmaking tight end, whether it’s Heap, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Dallas Clark, or Tony Gonzalez.

5) The Ravens have Ray Rice. The second year running back from Rutgers is a star in the making and earned his first Pro Bowl berth this year. I’m predicting it won’t be his last. Rice has the ability to run the ball up the middle while also making plays as a pass catcher. However, there are two things that worry me about Rice — he has trouble in short yardage and goal-line situations and he has shown a propensity for fumbling in recent weeks. If offensive coordinator Cam Cameron does what he did against the Steelers last week and uses Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain more, Rice could be the NFL playoffs’ ultimate weapon (remember the Titans are out, so Chris Johnson will have to wait until next year to prove himself come playoff time.)

6) The Ravens’ flaws are mostly mental. Against the Steelers, Baltimore committed a number of untimely penalties — twice on plays that negated touchdowns and at least one other time that negated a turnover. On top of that, Derrick Mason made an uncharacteristic in-game mental mistake in dropping a sure TD pass to begin the fourth quarter. While the Ravens secondary has come under fire, the reality is that the team generally loses games because of mental mistakes, not physical ones. Why is this good? Because, mental mistakes can be corrected more easily than physical ones. You can’t teach athleticism but you can certainly teach a guy not to hold or not to block in the back. Correct these mental lapses and the Ravens’ are closer to winning 13 games instead of 9.

This notion of parity in America’s number one pro sport league contributes to its popularity. After all, what’s better than watch a sporting event between two evenly matched teams where you, the fan, have no idea what the outcome will be?

However, rather than rely on stories or impressions, I thought I’d dig deeper and see if parity truly does exist in the NFL by examining hard numbers.

There are a few potential ways to measure parity but I’ve decided to do so by looking at how many of the NFL’s 32 teams have made the playoffs over the last 10 years. It would seem to me that an NFL team’s ultimate goal is to make the playoffs and thus achieving that goal would be a good measure of success.

Given that there are 12 playoff spots each year, over a ten year period that comes out to 120 aggregate spots. If there is absolutely no parity in the league (in other words, if the few dominated the many), we’d find that only 12 teams made the playoffs over that time, each of them doing so 10 times. On the opposite end of the spectrum, if there is 100% parity, we’d find that all 32 teams make it just about four times each (3.75 to be exact.)

So, I crunched the numbers, and here’s what I found. A whopping 31 teams made the playoffs over the last 10 years (with expansion team Houston having the ignominious disctinction of not having done so.) On the surface this would appear to confirm a high degree of parity. Upon closer inspection, however, as one might expect, the picture isn’t quite so clear.

It turns out that 67 of the playoff spots (56% of the total) were dominated by 11 teams (34% of the total.) And, 91 of the playoff spots (just above three-quarters of all the spots) were taken up by 17 teams (just over half the teams.)

In other words, it appears that while every team in the league does have a realistic shot to make the playoffs, there is indeed a pecking order such that most of the power is concentrated in a few of the teams.

Below are the number of playoff appearances for NFL teams over the last decade.

9 Appearances (1 team)

• Indianapolis: 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008

7 Appearances (1 team)

• Philadelphia: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008

6 Appearances (6 teams)

• Tennessee: 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2008
• Seattle: 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007
• Tampa Bay: 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2007
• New York Giants: 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
• New England: 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007
• Pittsburgh: 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008

5 Appearances (3 teams)

• St. Louis: 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004
• Baltimore: 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008
• Green Bay: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007

4 Appearances (6 teams)

• San Diego: 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008
• Dallas: 1999, 2003, 2006, 2007
• Minnesota: 1999, 2000, 2004, 2008
• Miami: 1999, 2000, 2001, 2008
• Denver: 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005
• New York Jets: 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006

3 Appearances (6 teams)

• Washington: 1999, 2005, 2007
• Jacksonville: 1999, 2005, 2007
• Oakland: 2000, 2001, 2002
• Chicago: 2001, 2005, 2006
• Atlanta: 2002, 2004, 2008
• Carolina: 2003, 2005, 2008

2 Appearances (3 teams)

• New Orleans: 2000, 2006
• San Francisco: 2001, 2002
• Kansas City: 2003, 2006

1 Appearance (5 teams)

• Buffalo: 1999
• Arizona: 2008
• Detroit: 1999
• Cincinnati: 2005
• Cleveland: 2002

In the NFL, the old adage is that every victory means something and no victory should never be taken for granted, but I’m sure even the most diehard Baltimore fan would admit that the Ravens’ last two blowout victories over bad NFL teams (Detroit and Chicago) don’t really give us a very clear indication of how good the Ravens truly are. There’s a reason why the team is 8-6 after all (you are what your record says you are), and why most fans are anything but certain of victory as the team travels to Pittsburgh this coming weekend.

With that in mind, here are some of my thoughts on the Bears game and on the team as it finishes up the regular season campaign…

Demetrius Williams should be the #2 receiver. I don’t see the guys practice all week and I don’t break down film like the coaches but based on what I’ve seen in games this year, Williams is the team’s second best receiver behind Derrick Mason. Against both the Lions and Bears, he came down with long passes in double coverage, having to jostle for position and fight off defenders. Against Green Bay he drew at least one pass interference call.

He is the Ravens’ only legit deep threat and on top of that, he’s tall, strong, and can jump. When Williams is on the field, he forces defenses to respect the deep ball, opening up opportunities for TE Todd Heap and Mason underneath, and even creating space for the running game. The Ravens don’t have another receiver who can do what Williams does.

Still need more McClain and McGahee. One thing is clear with this Ravens team: offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has no desire to feature any RB other than Ray Rice. Against the Bears, Rice broke off a couple of nice runs early but was bottled up the rest of the game. It would have been a great opportunity to use Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee to grind out some hard-fought yardage between the tackles, especially with a big lead late. Instead, Cameron seemed satisfied running Rice for two yards a pop.

It was nice to see the “Suggs Package” again. Trickeration — to borrow a phrase — was a big part of the Ravens’ offensive scheme under Cameron in 2008. One of the wrinkles included bringing in backup QB Troy Smith to run the option (or even toss a pass downfield to Flacco.)  This year, however, the offense has been far more conventional and has suffered for it, as far as I’m concerned.

So, this past Sunday, it was nice to see Smith in on some offensive plays that actually counted (rather than in a mop-up role like we saw against the Lions.) Smith did throw a late interception but generally speaking, I enjoy the added dimension Smith gives the offense when he’s on the field. He’s an athlete (and a former Heisman trophy winner) and I think he can help the team regularly beyond holding a clipboard.

Flacco was in the game too long. Up big at the beginning of the fourth quarter there was no reason for Flacco to be in the game. There was nothing in the tenor of the game at that point that should have made Cameron think the Bears were going to mount a serious comeback. So, why risk your franchise quarterback to run some meaningless plays at the end of a game?

Now, had the plays all been simple hand-offs, I guess I could have forgiven Cameron. But, he actually had Flacco drop back for some passes. And, in what was ultimately his last series of the game, Flacco was sacked hard and got up limping. What would have been Cameron’s defense if Flacco had suffered a serious injury at that point in the game? In my opinion, Flacco played two series too many.

This might seem like a good time to also go off on the Ravens for playing Lardarius Webb on special teams when his true value to the team is as a CB. After all, Webb suffered a season-ending knee injury in the third quarter against the Bears on a special teams play (reminiscent of what happened to former Giants CB Jason Sehorn many years ago.)

While I am worried about how the Ravens secondary will cope against the Steelers without Webb, he had provided a much-needed spark as a kick returner so it’s difficult to blame the Ravens brass for playing him on special teams. However, I’m also willing to bet we’ll never see Webb play special teams regularly again (outside of very, very occasional situations like we see with Ed Reed.)

Ravens need to win the Steelers game for more than just playoffs. The Steelers are the Ravens’ most formidable rival. Last year, they defeated the Ravens three times en route to winning the Super Bowl and the manner and circumstances of those three losses hurt Ravens fans to the core.

Some fans may believe that Baltimore ended the streak of futilitiy earlier this year by defeating Pittsburgh in overtime at home. However, I’m not one of them. Why? Because Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play due to a concussion and third-string backup Dennis Dixon was in at QB. And, to think, it was still a close game!

In other words, that game meant nothing. As far as I’m concerned, it didn’t even count. On the other hand, if the Ravens can go into Pittsburgh this Sunday against a healthy Big Ben in a game that matters for both teams AND WIN, then I believe the team is poised for a long playoff run. No other win could possibly give Baltimore and its fans the confidence that a win like that would bestow. And, I dare say that would be the biggest win in the John Harbaugh era.

Can the Ravens make the playoffs without defeating the Steelers this weekend? Sure. But, a Steelers loss would leave a bitter taste in my mouth and making the playoffs won’t give me the same sense of satisfaction. If the Ravens want to be considered an elite team, they have to defeat their arch-nemesis this weekend.

(Photos of Ray Lewis firing up the crowd courtesy of Pramit Mohapatra.)

Certainly, a win by the Ravens is a must, especially if the team wants to ensure that it controls its destiny as it tries to secure a wild card berth. But, I’m looking for more, especially on the offensive side of the ball…

Quarterback Joe Flacco is a future star in this league but one thing is clear in his second season in the NFL — he’s not ready to lead his team quite yet. He’s shown more than flashes of brilliance and even the ability early in the season to lead the team for long stretches of time. But, with a wide receiving crew that is slightly above average at best and an offensive line that hasn’t always done a good job of protecting Flacco, I believe offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has relied too much on the University of Delaware product.

That over-reliance on Flacco has been accompanied by an infatuation with running back Ray Rice. Again, there’s no doubt that this year has been Rice’s coming out party as one of the top running backs in the league and I’ve been high on him since his Rutgers days. But, the offense going through Rice and Flacco has become much too predictable.

Interestingly enough, the remedy for the team’s offensive woes (and let’s be real here, last week’s 48 points came against the Lions) does not involve a new wrinkle or any sort of innovation — instead it only requires looking back to the past. What I propose is returning to the team’s 2008 use of running backs Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain.

Last year, the three-headed monster at running back eased Flacco’s rookie year and led the Ravens to the playoffs. So, why abandon a system that clearly worked in the past?

I understand that Rice is a superstar in the making. But, McGahee has been – and continues to show that he is — a productive starting-caliber running back himself. And let’s not forget that McClain led the Ravens in rushing last year, gaining much of his yards up the middle and late in games, often breaking the spirit of Ravens foes.

While both McGahee and McClain have the ability to gain the tough yards, especially in short yardage situations, they don’t have the explosiveness or pass-catching ability of Rice. Still, the Ravens have struggled mightily this year in goal-line and short yardage situations, opting to use Rice more often than the other two in such situations, and that has been a problem for which McGahee and McClain are the perfect answer.

So, here’s what I propose in terms of how to use the three running backs:

• Outside the 20: Primarily use Rice in ways that exploit his ability in the open field with a sprinkling of McGahee and McClain on short-yardage plays.
• Inside the 20: Primarily McGahee and some McClain.
• Inside the 5: Equal parts McGahee and McClain.

Couple this running strategy with taking some of the pressure off Flacco to win games for the team and I think the Ravens’ struggling offense will flourish. The defense will be on the field less as the running game eats up clock and Flacco’s mistakes will be limited.

With three very winnable games remaining this season against teams with losing records, the Ravens are poised to make the playoffs for the second straight year under Coach John Harbaugh. But, instead of putting the offense in situations it’s not prepared to handle right now, why not simply refer to the successful blueprint laid out in Harbaugh’s first year — run often, spreading the carries among three very capable running backs, each with his own unique skill set?