Possibly the most interesting storyline at UFC 110 is that of three of Pride’s most distinguished fighters – all champs in the now-defunct Japanese promotion – setting foot inside the Octagon tonight, each fighter’s bout significant for a different reason. Another storyline is that of two TUF light heavyweights, each entering their respective bouts with a two-fight losing streak. Will a third loss result in either being cut from the world’s top MMA promotion? If so, it would be unfathomable to associate either man with another promotion, though I’d have to imagine Strikeforce would try to swoop in to capture them for their mass appeal.

With these and other themes as the backdrop, let’s take a look at the more fascinating bouts at UFC 110 (and there are a number of them.)

CB Dollaway vs. Goran Reljic (Middleweight — Dark card)

CB Dollaway is one of two Arizona Combat Sports fighters on the UFC 110 card. An All-American wrestler at Arizona State University, Dollaway was the runner-up in TUF 7. Since that loss to Amir Sadollah, Dollaway has gone 3-1 in the UFC. His key to victory at UFC 110 is to control the fight with his wrestling. However, he has to be careful if the fight does go to the ground. In fact, his losses in TUF and in the UFC have all come by way of submission.

Dollaway’s opponent, Goran Reljic, is one of three fighters on the card of Croatian descent. I remember his fight against Wilson Gouveia at UFC 84 well and I thought then that Reljic could make noise in the light heavyweight division. However, it’s been almost two years since that fight (because of injury) and Reljic has decided to fight at middleweight. There are a number of questions surrounding Reljic. How will he perform after almost two years away from competition? And, how will he handle the additional 20 pounds he had to lose to make weight? Against Gouveia, Reljic unleashed a very potent striking game but Reljic himself points out that he has a proficient submission game and his record proves it. If his is ground game is actually better than his stand-up, Dollaway could be in trouble.

Pick: Reljic by 2nd round TKO

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (Light heavyweight — Dark Card)

Stephan Bonnar’s name is synonymous with post-TUF UFC lore. He was one half of the fight that UFC President Dana White credits with putting the UFC and MMA on the map in the United States. That bout, of course, was a thrilling decision loss to Forrest Griffin in the TUF 1 Finale. I often wonder if the career paths of Bonnar and Griffin would have been significantly altered if that decision had been reversed. Since that bout, Griffin has gone on to stardom, even winning the UFC light heavyweight strap, while Bonnar’s career has been very uneven. Bonnar is now 5-5 inside the Octagon and comes into this bout with a two-fight losing streak. In the past, three straight losses has seemed like the magic number for the UFC in terms of cutting a fighter and Bonnar doesn’t appear to be much of a contender for the 205 lb. title. And yet, the sentimental side of me can’t imagine Bonnar fighting anywhere else. It’s almost as if I’d be okay if he’s earned lifelong tenure with the promotion for what he helped it achieve.

Krzysztof Soszynski, on the other hand, is a fighter notable for more than simply having the most difficult name in MMA to spell. Although he’s fairly new to UFC fans, who first met him in TUF 8, he acquitted himself fairly well when he was in the IFL. Soszynski’s last fight was a lackluster loss to Brandon Vera at UFC 102 in which he seemed like the slower of the two and never got off. Prior to that, however, he had an impressive victory over one-time rising star Andre Gusmao. Soszynski’s expertise lies in his ground game and almost half of his submissions have come by way of kimura. I see Soszynski trying to take the fight to the ground and attempting to assert his submission game. Even though Bonnar’s forte is his BJJ game, I believe Soszynski will prove too physically strong for him on the ground.

Pick: Soszynski by 1st round kimura

Mirko Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh (Heavyweight — Main Card)

Mirko Filipovic has to be one of the most fascinating men in the history of MMA. He was one of Pride’s biggest stars, realizing his potential with a 2006 Open Weight Grand Prix title, which culminated with a victory that may have begun the decline of runner-up Wanderlei Silva. When Filipovic signed with the UFC, it was a foregone conclusion that he would eventually be fighting for the heavyweight title. Instead, the Croatian renaissance man has gone 2-3 inside the Octagon and has not looked the same since his devastating head kick loss to Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 70. “Cro Cop” has appeared to struggle against bigger, more physical fighters who close the distance and don’t allow him to pull the trigger on his famous left head kick.

Thankfully for Filipovic, his original opponent at UFC 110 — Ben Rothwell – reportedly came down with an illness this past week and had to withdraw from the bout. So, his new opponent is Anthony Perosh, a man who last fought inside the Octagon at UFC 66 and is 0-2 overall in the UFC. Perosh is also much smaller than Rothwell and really only poses a challenge if the fight goes to the ground. While Filipovic-Rothwell would have been a tough bout to pick, as long as Filipovic can sprawl and maintain distance standing up, he should come away with a victory over Perosh. I, for one, am rooting for a “Cro Cop” resurgence and believe he will at least square away his UFC record at UFC 110.

Pick: Filipovic by 2nd round KO

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader (Light Heavyweight — Main Card)

Keith Jardine is another TUF-era fighter that every true UFC fan knows. Not only does the Greg Jackson-trained mixed martial artist have a distinctive look, he has also been in a number of memorable fights against the promotion’s best at 205 pounds, some of which he’s actually won. Yet, Jardine now finds himself 6-5 in the UFC, including 1-3 in his last four bouts. His last two bouts were a close loss to Quinton ”Rampage” Jackson followed by a quintessential quick KO loss to Thiago Silva. So, this fight, against an up-and-comer in Ryan Bader, really has the distinctive feel of one that Jardine needs to win in impressive fashion in order to maintain his standing within the promotion.

Bader, on the other hand, is now 3-0 in the UFC thanks to a dominating wrestling game. Like Dollaway, Bader is also a TUF alum (in fact he was the TUF 8 champ), an Arizona Combat Sports member, and an ASU All-American. Against Jardine, the formula for victory for Bader should be clear — take Jardine down and control him on the ground. While Bader has in the past shown that he has okay hands (and no doubt worked on them for this bout), Jardine’s unorthodox herky-jerky stand-up style has confounded many an opponent.

Pick: Bader by decision

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping (Middleweight — Co-Main Event)

At one time, Wanderlei Silva was one of the most feared men in all of MMA. He had a phenomenal run as Pride’s “Middleweight” champ from 2001 to 2007. But, starting with his loss to Filipovic and then his KO loss to Dan Henderson (in which he finally lost the Pride belt), Silva has gone 1-4 in his last five fights, including 1-2 in his latest stint inside the Octagon. The one thing you know when you watch Silva is that he will put on a show and will bring his wild, looping punches fearlessly, regardless of the opponent. He simply does not back down and his 2007 New Year’s Eve bout against Chuck Liddell was one for the ages.

While Michael Bisping is certainly a formidable opponent, this bout is more about whether Silva can assert himself and jumpstart his career in the middleweight division. At 185 pounds, Silva will no longer be the smaller fighter in his bouts. But, the question is, how will he handle the weight cut this first time around? And will he still have the power and ferocity he brought when he fought at light heavyweight? Of course, there are those who also wonder if a career made of taking punches in order to give them has finally caught up with Silva. If Bisping knocks him out, that may very well be the case, given the lack of power displayed by the Brit in the past. While Silva will be throwing bombs searching for a KO, look for Bisping to earn points with accurate punches and takedowns. If Silva can duplicate Dan Henderson’s effort against Bisping, fans might be treated to chapter two in the Wanderlei Silva story, featuring a run at 185 pounds that climaxes with a title bout against that other Silva. If Bisping does to Silva what he did to Denis Kang in his last bout, expect to hear the questions about Silva’s decline to only get louder.

Pick: Silva by 2nd round TKO

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez (Heavyweight — Main Event)

The main event bout features two heavyweights whose main hallmarks might be that both simply refuse to quit. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the only man to have ever worn Pride and UFC belts while his AKA foe — Cain Velasquez — represents the next generation of UFC heavyweights. “Big Nog” has been in more big MMA fights than Velasquez has even fought. But, that doesn’t mean you should underestimate Velasquez, who is yet another ASU All-American fighting at UFC 110.

In order for Velasquez to win, he will have to weather the storm standing up, shoot for “Big Nog”’s legs and go for takedown after takedown. On the ground, Velasquez will need to be weary of Nogueira’s submission attempts from bottom position while also trying to maintain top control and looking for openings to unleash his ground-and-pound attack.

While Velasquez must take the fight to the ground and maintain top position to win, Big Nog can win anywhere in the Octagon, standing or even on his back. While I see Velasquez as a future heavyweight title contender, I don’t think his time is now and I also don’t think Big Nog’s best days are behind him. The wily Brazilian has outsmarted many a foe during his storied career and should be able to do the same in Sydney.

Pick: Nogueira by 2nd round triangle choke

While wrestling is certainly not flashy, it, more than the other disciplines, has emerged as a must-have skillset if a MMA fighter wishes to be champion. Simply look at the fact that current UFC champs Brock Lesnar and Georges St. Pierre have built their games around superior wrestling. Former MMA champs such as Randy Couture, Dan Henderson, Matt Hughes, and many, many others have done the same.

And, it’s no coincidence that collegiate wrestlers seem to make easier transitions to MMA than their BJJ or Muay Thai counterparts. Just look at the influx of wrestlers successfully working their way up the UFC ranks such as light heavyweight Jon Jones, lightweight Gray Maynard, and recent roster addition Phil Davis, who made his UFC debut at UFC 109.

At UFC 109, wrestling re-asserted itself as the preferred tool of victory with a number of fighters relying almost solely upon it to garner wins.

Phil Davis Leads Parade of Wrestlers

There was no more convincing display of wrestling acumen at UFC 109 than what UFC light heavyweight debutant Davis showed fans as he thoroughly broke down former WEC light heavyweight champ Brian Stann. UFC commentator Joe Rogan nailed it when he called Davis a light heavyweight version of St. Pierre. From his tree trunk legs to his forceful takedowns to his mastery once on the ground Davis showed everyone the tools that made him an NCAA wrestling champ at Penn State. Although he’s young both chronologically and in MMA, Davis propels himself on par with the likes of Jon Jones as someone who has to be considered a future star. He was respectable standing up (especially considering that’s Stann’s forte) and even tried an armbar as the fight ended.

Athleticism won’t be an issue as Davis works his way up the ladder. And, I for one am glad that the UFC decided to broadcast Davis’ fight on the PPV telecast. Fans need to become familiar with him now.

Chael Sonnen is a Worthy Title Contender

While Davis was the most powerful wrestler on the night, it was Chael Sonnen’s dominant performance against Nate Marquardt that completely caught me off guard. Sure, Sonnen had bested fellow wrestler Yushin Okami in a previous bout but I believed going into the fight that Marquardt’s stand-up and BJJ prowess would prove too much. Boy was I wrong. Sonnen was the bigger, stronger man and had no difficulty not only taking Marquardt down but then controlling him on the ground. Although Marquardt made a valiant effort in the last couple of minutes, attempting to secure a guillotine choke, Sonnen had done far too much over the first 13 minutes of the fight.

As for Sonnen’s next bout — a title fight against the winner of Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort — I believe Sonnen is ready for the challenge. If Silva has a weakness in his game (and, remember this is all relative), it may be against wrestlers (see Henderson.) I’m not saying that Sonnen is going to win because he’s a good wrestler. What I am saying, however, is that Sonnen has a better chance than most because there’s no one at 185 who has the striking or the BJJ to defeat Silva. The jury’s still out as to how Silva will deal with an opponent dedicated to using a strong wrestling base.

Randy Couture Gets the Job Done

Workmanlike. That’s how I would describe Randy Couture’s victory over Mark Coleman. It was clear early on that Couture was the quicker of the two fighting on their feet as the five-time UFC champ peppered the fellow Hall of Famer with fists. Couture then used his trademark clinch against the cage to dirty box his way to further dominance. By the time Couture scored a takedown (apparently only the second time in Coleman’s career that he’s been taken down if you believe the UFC telecast stats) and worked his way to a rear naked choke victory, the fight had been all but over for awhile.

While Couture did most of his damage standing up, it was the threat of his wrestling (Greco-Roman or otherwise) that Coleman had to respect. Any other foe and you have to believe that Coleman would have gone in for a takedown immediately.

While Couture did what he had to do against Coleman, his victory over Brandon Vera still resonates in my mind. I didn’t consider that a very convincing win over a fighter who is not in the UFC light heavyweight top ten. So, it’s difficult for me to put much stock in Couture’s UFC 109 performance. Instead, I would like to see him do it again against one of the UFC’s thoroughbred 205 pounders before giving “Captain America” another title shot.

Wrestling as Defense

Much like the true value of Couture’s wrestling ability may have come from what did not happen rather than what did happen, Joey Beltran and Melvin Guillard used wrestling to keep their respective opponents at bay rather than as offensive weapons.

Beltran, making his UFC debut against Rolles Gracie (also stepping into the Octagon for the first time), suffered an initial takedown early in the fight but turned the tide by eventually sweeping the accomplished BJJ practitioner and bearer of the most famous surname in MMA. From then on, Beltran had Gracie’s number, stuffing takedown attempt after takedown attempt with a very nice sprawl. Beltran eventually went to work standing up, landing a knee that appeared to severly hurt Gracie who face-planted into the mat, before finishing him with strikes on the ground.

Guillard earned a much-needed victory against BJJ specialist Ronys Torres by constantly minimizing the damage done by Torres’ takedowns. The judges ultimately rewarded Guillard for his numerous escapes from the ground, for his ability to sweep or stand up immediately after being taken down, and for not absorbing any damage on the ground (as he seemed to indicate with a mock yawn late in the fight.) Guillard favors the stand-up game but is also a very good wrestler. It appears that under the tutelage of uber-trainer Greg Jackson, the young man from New Orleans has learned to embrace defensive wrestling at least, which makes his stand-up even more dangerous. All in all, I really liked watching Guillard 2.0. He seems to have a new attitude on life and on fighting and I certainly hope he keeps it up because he has the talent to make it far in the UFC’s lightweight division.

Punches Still Work Too

While the fighters above used wrestling to forge victories, Matt Serra and Paulo Thiago used heavy hands to earn their W’s. Although Serra is a very accomplished BJJ practitioner, he has proven over and over again that he packs a wallop with his punches (just ask GSP.) Against Frank Trigg at UFC 109, Serra first worked the body before sending Trigg to the canvas with a right hook. The stocky (using his own word) Serra finished the job on the ground with more fists, never once having to use his BJJ skills.

Thiago used a similar plan to vanquish yet another American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) foe in welterweight Mike Swick. Thiago caught Swick with both a right and a left that put “Quick” on the mat before pouncing on him and finishing with an impressive D’Arce Choke.

For Thiago, the impressive victory moves him to 3-1 in the UFC and 2-1 against AKA foes. Because of his debut victory over contender Josh Koscheck, Thiago has worked mostly against the UFC welterweight division’s elite. The win over Swick keeps him there and now it’ll be interesting to see who UFC matchmaker Joe Silva puts him up against next. I would like to see Thiago fight former number one contender Thiago Alves for a chance at the title. Or, maybe even a shot against the loser of the GSP-Dan Hardy title fight coming soon. Either way, Thiago is already making noise as a potential contender to the title.

As for Serra, the win was a good one but I’m not sure that it does anything for his future prospects in the division. Serra has averaged one UFC fight a year for the last six years. Listening to him talk about his daughter’s upcoming birthday party in the post-fight interview with Rogan, it seems to me he’s content fighting infrequently while focusing on family and his successful gym.

Other Thoughts

The UFC appears to have listened to its fans, delivering more bang for the buck with each pay-per-view broadcast. Fans who tuned their TVs to Spike TV at 9 PM ET and then ordered the pay-per-view at 10 PM ET were treated to nine of the eleven fights on the card. That’s almost double the standard five fights some PPV telecasts offered just a couple of years ago. I have to believe that the Spike TV initiative, especially, was motivated by similar efforts from EliteXC, the now-defunct promotion which used to televise undercard fights on Showtime before showing the main card fights on CBS. Or Affliction, which did the same on HDNet before sending viewers to their PPV telecasts. Hopefully, Scott Coker and Strikeforce pick up this practice as well. My one complaint with Strikeforce broadcasts is that we as fans don’t see enough fights on them.

Regardless, if you want proof that competition in MMA is good, the increased number of fights being shown by the UFC is certainly evidence of that.

But, in the end, when all the hype has died down and the teams step onto the South Florida sod, only one team can emerge victorious. Ever since this match-up was set, I’ve been firm in my belief that the Saints will eke out a victory. I’ve tried to break down the game to explain why (but rest assured, I haven’t put any money down on the strength of this conviction.)

Offense: Push

The Saints were the number one total offense during the course of the regular season, with the Colts sitting at ninth. But, let there be no doubt the outcome of this game will hinge on the arms of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Both passers have a strong complement of receivers they trust and both put up big numbers with the Colts the number two passing team in the NFL and the Saints 10 yards worse per game at number four. I like the Colts’ top end receivers, especially Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark as well as their young WRs Garcon and Collie, who have really come on this season, but generally speaking the Saints have more receivers to throw out on the field and you always have to account for Reggie Bush coming out of the backfield. If I really had to choose, I might be tempted to pick the Colts on the strength of Manning but overall it’s just too close to call.

Defense: Saints

Neither of these defenses are stalwarts, given that both placed in the bottom half of the league during the regular season (which is why I’m expecting a high-scoring game), but a couple of things I saw in the postseason have me favoring the Saints on this side of the ball. First, New Orleans faced two of the more prolific offenses in the league during the playoffs in Arizona and Minnesota (both of whom also happened to be division winners.) The Saints held the Cardinals to 14 points and forced five turnovers against the Vikings. In addition, it was clear that the Saints were intent on rushing the passer and did so in both games with devastating results.

The Colts defense, on the other hand, faced two relatively weak offenses in the playoffs, going against the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Both opponents were led by young, inexperienced quarterbacks and both opponents were also the lowest seeded teams in the AFC. So, it’s difficult to read too much into the Colts defensive performances in those game. In fact, I thought Jets QB Mark Sanchez found quite a few holes in the Colts defense in the first half of the AFC Championship game. And, I imagine Brees will figure out a way to do the same for the entire game.

Special Teams: Saints

Both Saints K John Carney and Colts K Matt Stover (how much does seeing that irk you, Ravens fans?) are steady veteran kickers, neither of whom will boot away the game for either of their respective teams. So, the reason I give the special teams edge to the Saints is the Reggie Bush factor. In the open field, Bush may be the most dangerous player on either side of the ball. On the other hand, if he fumbles like he did against the Vikings, the balance could very well swing to the Colts. But, Bush has been in a lot of big games in his life so I see him rising to the occasion and breaking off a big return at some point in the game.

Karma & Intangibles: Saints

While I think the stats and the analysis slightly favor the Saints, you know a Ravens fan like me is going to give New Orleans the upper hand based on karma. First of all, the Colts are truly a Baltimore team and the  NFL should have never allowed the colors or the logo to leave this city. At some point, Indianapolis will have to pay for this indiscretion (so why not on the biggest stage in all of American sports?)

But, even beyond that pettiness, there are also positive reasons that favor a Saints victory. While Manning seems to be a great person with a dry sense of humor and is unquestionably one of the best QBs of all time, Brees, based on everything I’ve read, has made an impact both on and off the field in a city that was thrashed by Hurricane Katrina almost five years ago. How can you not root for someone who has endeavored against long odds to not just be the best at what he does professionally but has also become part of the community that embraces him and has so generously given himself to that community?

Manning has his Super Bowl ring (and will probably one day own all the career NFL passing records.) I’m hoping that Super Bowl XLIV is the day Brees earns his.

My prediction: Saints win 34-27 with the MVP going to Drew Brees

Randy Couture (205) vs. Mark Coleman (205) — PPV

My thoughts: Both Couture and Coleman are physical specimens and would put men twenty years younger to shame with their bodies. However, I can’t see the winner of this one being a contender for the 205 pound title when there are so many other accomplished fighters in what is the UFC’s deepest division. Coleman was impressive in his last bout against Stephen Bonnar but can he escape Couture’s clinch and keep his back away from the cage? If not, Couture should earn a much-needed convincing victory, which ”The Natural” hasn’t had since he defeated Gabriel Gonzaga back in 2007. Five to ten years ago this certainly would have been a veritable mega-fight.

Nate Marquardt (186) vs. Chael Sonnen (185) — PPV

My thoughts: This is the one fight on the card that has title ramifications as the winner should square off against the winner of the Anderson Silva-Vitor Belfort title bout later this year. While Sonnen was impressive in his two highest profile bouts against Paulo Filho in the WEC, I simply can’t see him defeating Marquardt because Marquardt is superior in all facets of the game. I also believe that Marquardt has the tools and the mental fortitude to give Anderson Silva a true challenge in what would be a rematch.

Mike Swick (171) vs. Paulo Thiago (170) — PPV

My thoughts: Since Thiago’s shocking debut upset of Josh Koscheck he’s been less than spectacular inside the Octagon. Swick, on the other hand, must regroup after losing a shot at the title with a loss to Dan Hardy in his previous bout. Both men are fighting to stay relevant in the upper ranks of the UFC’s welterweight division.

Demian Maia (186) vs. Dan Miller (185) — PPV

My thoughts: Maia’s upward trajectory came to a screeching halt in his last fight — a quick KO loss to Marquardt. In Miller, he faces an opponent whose style should present a favorable match-up for the Brazilian BJJ ace. Miller’s best hope is keeping the fight standing. Otherwise history dictates that Maia could win in spectacular fashion. Regardless, Maia is going to have to figure out a way to eventually beat upper-echelon all-around fighters before he can even think of a title shot.

Matt Serra (169) vs. Frank Trigg (171) — PPV

My thoughts: Like Couture-Coleman, this is another fight that will be fun to watch but has very little impact on the welterweight standings. All four of the elders on this card are tremendous ambassadors for the sport and these sorts of match-ups between old-school legends usually don’t disappoint. So, sit back and enjoy this one and don’t worry too much about what it means in the bigger picture.

Mac Danzig (156) vs. Justin Buchholz (156) – Spike TV

My thoughts: I had high hopes for Danzig after he won the TUF 6 title in the welterweight division but he’s now lost three in a row and really needs a victory at UFC 109 to justify future PPV card consideration. Buchholz might be just the remedy for Danzig’s ills as he, too, enters the bout with a losing UFC record, sitting at 1-3 inside the Octagon.

Melvin Guillard (155) vs. Ronys Torres (156) – Spike TV

My thoughts: Guillard is a talented but mercurial fighter who loves to stand and bang but has in the past disparaged the notion of the ground game. So, it’s no surprise that all four of his losses in the UFC have come by submission, including his last one against Nate Diaz. Guillard is still young but at some point, if he wants to make a move in the lightweight division he’s going to have to prove that he can beat the likes of Torres, who is making his Octagon debut and apparently favors the submission game, according to UFC.com’s profile of him. It’s appropriate that Guillard, the New Orleans native, fights on the same weekend his hometown Saints play in the Super Bowl because he’s going to have to deliver some stand-up fireworks to secure a victory.

Phillipe Nover (155) vs. Rob Emerson (155)

My thoughts: It’s interesting that Joe Rogan mistakenly introduced Nover as the TUF 8 champ during the weigh-in introductions because Nover’s fortunes in the UFC have turned since that season-ending loss to Efrain Escudero. Since then, Nover has lost his only non-TUF fight in the Octagon and also suffered a medical issue that prevented him from fighting his last fight. Let’s hope he is healthy again because I still have high hopes for Nover as a future star in the lightweight division, especially if he’s been able to add a wrestling base to his Muay Thai and BJJ foundations.

Brian Stann (205) vs. Phil Davis (205)

My thoughts: Stann is a tremendous story given his military service in defense of this country. However, I haven’t been terribly impressed with him inside the cage. Although he is a former WEC light heavyweight champ, I found his game to be rather one-dimensional and always thought he looked robotic and stiff standing up (even though that’s his strength.) Davis is a youngster in the sport but he has a superior collegiate wrestling pedigree as a four-time All-American and 2008 national champ at Penn State. I saw Davis fight last year at a UWC event and he was very impressive, winning by first round TKO. I see Davis winning in his UFC debut, especially if he can assert himself with strong takedowns.

Tim Hague (263) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (263)

My thoughts: The heavyweight division is now stocked with up-and-coming talent but these two big boys are both coming off TKO losses. Hague lost in a UFC record seven seconds to Todd Duffee his last time in the cage while Tuchscherer lost to Gabriel Gonzaga via first round TKO. I’m especially intrigued by Tuchscherer because he’s a Brock Lesnar training partner. I have to think going up against the UFC heavyweight champ in practice everyday is going to make you a tough out anytime inside the Octagon.

Rolles Gracie (247) vs. Joey Beltran (238)

My thoughts: Both of these fighters are making their UFC debuts so I don’t know much about either one. Rolles might be the biggest Gracie around and not surprisingly his strength is listed as BJJ on UFC.com. Beltran’s profile, on the other hand, states that he has heavy hands. I also happen to think Beltran has a clever nickname — he calls himself “The Mexecutioner.” So, on the surface this matchup would appear to be a classic contrast in styles, but hopefully we’ll learn a little more about both fighters during this bout.

Final thoughts: I consider UFC 109 to be a B+ card by UFC standards. Similar to UFC 108, which didn’t live up to previous New Year’s Day cards, UFC 109 doesn’t live up to previous Super Bowl weekend cards because it lacks a true mega-fight (think back to last year’s GSP-BJ Penn main event on Super Bowl weekend.) Instead, what we as fans get is a strong card with a lot of very good fights (in fact, I’m more interested in the dark card fights in terms of evaluating up-and-coming talent.) While the Couture-Coleman and Serra-Trigg fights serve up venerable names who will be prominent in the annals of the sport, neither fight should have contender ramifications in either the light heavyweight or welterweight divisions, respectively. In fact, the only contender-worthy fight on the card is the Marquardt-Sonnen fight.

Given that I’ve written on this blog and in the past about two sports — MMA and football — that are undoubtedly violent, I thought it was the responsible thing to do to acknowledge the growing discourse regarding head trauma (particularly in the form of concussions) in sports, especially in football.  Not only are publications like Time shining light on the topic, but Congress has even become involved. So, I hope readers of this blog click on the links above to read the Time articles and also search the internet for more information.

While much of the current clamor revolves around football because of its importance in American culture, the fact is the discussion could certainly apply to MMA, boxing, and hockey, where head injuries are also not uncommon. In fact, I wonder whether or not repeated heading of a soccer ball could also cause similar injuries. At the very least, all sports should be more closely examined in light of new evidence.

Before I go on, I must say up front that I’m not a medical doctor and have not conducted any independent research on head trauma in sports or otherwise. Instead, I count myself as a fan of sports in which head trauma is apparently real and has apparently led to long-term problems in the lives of a number of participants of those sports. Because I’m not only a fan but someone who also writes about such sports, I think I have a further obligation to at least increase awareness of the discussion amongst those who read my work.

In reality, it’s somewhat of a catch-22 for millions of fans of violent but legal sports like football and MMA. Is it possibly to cheer and worry at the same time? In fact, it may be time to do both, if you read the anecdotes of athletes and look at the growing mountain of data.

What complicates the issue with head trauma is that its true problems arise over a long period of time – over the course of numerous blows — and are thus not as obvious as broken bones, bruises, or cuts. This insidious nature of brain injury has made it possible to overlook it for so many years.

But, now with athletes becoming bigger, stronger, and faster and with collisions becoming more dramatic, it appears that football in particular has reached a tipping point with concussions.

I’ve come to believe that part of the problem with football is the false sense of security that all the padding and the helmet give fans and participants. While this gear is certainly protective, it also emboldens players to hit harder and take greater risks. By contrast, rugby, which I played a little a few years ago, is relatively sparse in terms of protective gear. The lack of substantial padding in rugby — as well as the rule book — serve to promote proper tackling form.

Even so, I certainly saw my share of tackles made on the rugby pitch where the tackler used poor form (for example not tackling with the head up) or where the ball carrier led with his head down. Not to mention what I imagine were fairly violent impacts by the behemoths in the scrum.

So, I cannot even fathom the sort of collisions our country’s best athletes are party to beginning in their teen years with high school football. Beyond that, I can’t possibly begin to understand what the repeated blows to the head over the next 20 or so years have done to the most talented of these players.

In MMA, regulatory bodies stipulate a mandatory rest period for a fighter who has suffered a concussion during a bout. Yet, in football, at least until recently, players who have suffered concussions have been known to return to the field, not just a week later, but even later in that same game. And, that’s according to the stories we’ve been told. How many stories are untold?

The Time articles present some solutions to the problems. I certainly don’t have the expertise to know what’s best for these athletes, but I’m glad some of this country’s best minds are trying to tackle the problem. I admire the bravery of football players, especially in the face of such dangerous situations. But, as much as I am a fanatic of violent sports such as MMA and football, I would also be in favor of any rules that make athletes safer and protect them both now and later, once they’ve retired. I don’t believe the money and the fame justify injuries that can apparently lead to the debilitation seen in many of these athletes.

And, as much as I love the sports, given what I currently know, it would be difficult for me to allow my son or daughter to participate. Not because I don’t think these are noble endeavors. But, rather because of fear for their well-being.

While I enjoyed the card and was certainly entertained by it (and also feel that Strikeforce has proven that women’s MMA is here to stay), I’d also like to see Strikeforce begin to aim for more consistency with its shows and a more discernible order to its weight classes. By this I mean that I hope that even as the San Jose-based company’s roster grows and even as we are treated to the debuts of the likes of Melvin Manhoef and Herschel Walker that we also see the other fighters on the roster in a regular rotation. One thing I’ve come to realize with the UFC is that part of its success has included making fans familiar with its top fighters.

So, even though UFC 109 next weekend doesn’t really have any A+ caliber-fights, the card does have a number of fights, especially on the dark card, that will attract hardcore eyes because they involve fighters we are all familiar with and have watched fight a number of times. Those bouts allow us to follow the progress of certain fighters as they work their way up (or down) the ladder.

While Strikeforce has proven it can build very good cards with spectacular fights, now I need to see more than one-off contests. I would like to see more established pecking orders within each weight class and an attempt, especially at light heavyweight and welterweight, to fill out the classes, including up-and-coming fighters into the mix. In other words, I think Strikeforce has to begin working on an overarching storyline that threads all these disparate events together. Right now, each event stands up very well on its own but in totality I don’t necessarily see a connection that would help tell a story about a given fighter or a given weight class.

I have no doubt Scott Coker and Co. are working on this very thing (and don’t forget how young Strikeforce MMA is.) Regardless, I’m very impressed with where the promotion is headed, especially given its Showtime and CBS affiliations and the constant improvement of its roster.

On to my thoughts about the night.

Give Bobby Lashley Time

Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

The one thing about critics is you can’t win with them, no matter what you do. When Brock Lesnar skyrocketed up the UFC heavyweight ranks, some thought he was being given opportunities he didn’t deserve and needed to be brought up more slowly. Now, with a fellow WWE performer and collegiate wrestler, Bobby Lashley, we are seeing the opposite. Some critics believe Lashley is coming up the ranks too slowly.

I disagree with this assessment. Lashley is currently only five fights into his professional career. While he hasn’t yet stepped into the deep end of the pool, I think that fact shows a remarkable self-awareness and the enactment of an appropriate plan by Lashley. He knows what his limits are as a fighter right now and is simply trying to gain experience that will make him better. Is his list of opponents necessarily impressive? Maybe not. But, let’s not discount it so readily either.

The latest foe Lashley discarded Saturday night — Wes Sims — is a UFC veteran who has fought the likes of Tim Sylvia and Frank Mir. Sims also sports over 20 MMA victories in his career. Against Lashley, he posed a unique challenge with his extraordinary height.

Ultimately, Lashley did what he needed to do and did so quickly. He used his wrestling to take the fight to the ground before pounding Sims out.

As long as Lashley continues to improve his game (especially in stand-up and submission grappling) and as long as Strikeforce gives him progressively more difficult and more accomplished opponents I’m fine with his career trajectory. I’m sure Lashley understands that one day he will lose. Even Fedor has a blemish on his record, deserved or not. I don’t think Lashley is somehow running away from a loss. Instead, I think he’s trying to create a strong foundation for a long MMA career.

Herschel Walker’s Debut a Success

Herschel Walker vs. Greg Nagy

Everyone connected to Herschel Walker’s pro MMA debut — American Kickboxing Academy (AKA), Strikeforce, the regulatory bodies, and Walker himself — deserves kudos for Walker’s performance Saturday night. Walker, a man I consider an athletic genius who has excelled in a number of demanding physical endeavors throughout his life, came into the event looking absolutely phenomenal (just ask my wife, who had no problem openly ogling the 47-year-old.)

But, what impressed me more was Walker’s apparent understanding of some MMA fundamentals as he took Nagy down, achieved superior ground position and even escaped a submission attempt or two. His conditioning appeared to be superb and his humility was refreshing. Walker brings a team-based ethos to MMA, unwilling to take sole credit for his accomplishments but rather giving thanks to his teammates and sparring partners at AKA.

The regulatory body and Strikeforce deserve credit for giving Walker a respectable opponent in the form of Greg Nagy, who had two pro fights entering this card. Nagy clearly has some skills on the ground and fantastic flexibility but on this night Walker’s superior strength and athleticism was the key. It was a fair first test, and Walker passed for sure.

While Walker wouldn’t guarantee another fight in his post-fight interview, I certainly hope we see him in the cage again. Win or lose, he’s proven he belongs in the sport.

Lawler Proves One-Punch Power

Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef

The rest of the Showtime card featured top-notch bouts between high quality opponents. The first such fight pitted middleweights Robbie Lawler and Melvin Manhoef in a stand-up war that didn’t disappoint. Manhoef controlled much of the fight by repeatedly kicking Lawler all over his body and mostly his legs (much like one might do to a soccer ball), leading Lawler to limp out of the cage. But, even as Manhoef gained confidence and pushed the attack, Lawler was never truly out of it.

And the HIT Squad fighter proved as much by taking advantage of Manhoef’s tendency to drop his hands in pursuit. Lawler rocked the Dutchman with an overhand right and followed up with two shots on the ground that left Manhoef stiff as the fight ended.

It was a remarkable display by both men in what is easily Strikeforce’s deepest and most compelling weight class. While I’d like to see current 185 lb. champ Jake Shields fight Dan Henderson next, I’d also like to see Lawler face another comeback kid, Scott Smith, for a third time to face the winner of that title fight.

Manhoef is a welcome addition to the Strikeforce ranks and joins men like Jason “Mayhem” Miller who’ve made their names in Japan. Let’s hope we see much more from him Stateside.

 ”Cyborg” Asserts Herself at the Top of Women’s 145 lb Class

Cris Cyborg vs. Marloes Coenen

While mainstream fans may have been convinced about Cristiane Santos’ ability by her previous victory over Gina Carano to capture the Strikeforce title, hardcore MMA fans knew that there were other, maybe more able, opponents lurking at 145 pounds. Holland’s Marloes Coenen was one of them. Quite capable on the ground, Coenen also represented a near physical match for the Brazilian.

But, one thing became clear early even as Coenen surprisingly stood her ground standing up — “Cyborg” is simply too explosive for most of her opponents. On this night she used this fast-twitch ability to pressure Coenen on their feet, but even so did most of her damage with forceful takedowns and unrelenting ground-and-pound that eventually subdued the game Dutchwoman in the third round.

Coenen proved she was good enough to not get knocked out and to last three rounds with “Cyborg” but not good enough to mount any real offensive attack that would threaten Santos. What was especially surprising was how little Coenen could do on the ground.

The legend of “Cyborg” continues to grow. Now, the question is, who does Strikeforce have lined up for her next? And, for Coenen, why not pit her against Carano in a battle of Santos’ last two vanquished foes?

 Diaz Impresses with Hands

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis

Whatever you think of Nick Diaz, you have to admit the man from Stockton can fight. Against Marius Zaromskis – the Dream welterweight tourney winner –Diaz proved once again that despite his Cesar Gracie BJJ pedigree, he needs to be taken seriously as a boxer, too.

While Diaz doesn’t necessarily hurt opponents with a single punch, he peppers them over and over, accurately reaching his target and finally putting them away via an accumulation of blows. Diaz won the Strikeforce welterweight belt against Zaromskis, withstanding kicks to assert himself, in much this manner. Diaz seemed calm and collected as he picked apart Zaromskis in impressive fashion.

And, it seems to me that welterweight may be a good weight for Diaz, who has fought at lightweight all the way up to middleweight in recent years. Diaz showed his length against Zaromskis, who was constantly out of range during the bout, while also showing some power with his punches. He also used his smarts to recover from an early blow that knocked him to the ground.

The amazing thing about Diaz is that in winning his last six fights in a row, he has relied quite a bit on his boxing, which continues to mature in devastating fashion. This has to be scary news for future opponents, who certainly know that Diaz is perhaps even more prolific on the ground.

While a bout against newly-signed foe KJ Noons would be nice (though that would probably have to take place at a catchweight), other options in a relatively weak Strikeforce welterweight division include Jay Hieron, who also won in Miami. Of course, a bout against fellow Cesar Gracie pupil and 185 pound champ Shields would be tantalizing but will probably never happen, given that they train together.

In the meantime, Diaz needs to be included in pound-for-pound rankings discussions and maybe, just maybe, also included in fantasy bout discussions involving UFC 170 pound champ Georges St. Pierre.

(All photos courtesy of Esther Lin/Strikeforce.)

While I don’t necessarily agree with Gross’ solution (and quite frankly, that point is secondary), I do agree with him that MMA is at a crossroads and that Strikeforce has the legitimate potential to not only be a solid #2 but even become the new Pride to UFC’s juggernaut — in other words a possible equal to the UFC. After all, Strikeforce has continuously improved its roster in recent months and has big-time exposure in the form of Showtime and CBS.

If Strikeforce does realize its potential, then the reality is neither a UFC title nor a Strikeforce title will be meaningful because the MMA talent pool will be divided between the two promotions. If, as Gross believes, the goal of MMA is to determine who the best fighters are, the only way to resolve the dilemma posed by two strong promotions is with co-promoted fights.

Rather than using tournaments, which I believe would add a logistic hurdle that doesn’t make sense, what I propose is an annual Super Bowl of MMA (much like the one Dana White posited as an idea when Zuffa bought Pride.) This Super Bowl of MMA would take place the Saturday night before American football’s Super Bowl.

This proposal carries with it a number of advantages. For one, the co-promotional event would only take place on one night, which means that fighters would be fighting outside their respective promotions only once a year. This is certainly a palatable compromise in the spirit of determining the best of the best. Second, the night before the real Super Bowl has already been established by the UFC as a major night for MMA so re-orienting or educating fans would not be an issue. Third, only two promotions — the UFC and Strikeforce — would be involved in such an event meaning negotiations would be fairly straightforward (Gross’ idea was to involve fighters from all the major promotions throughout the world which I think is currently too ambitious.) Fourth, the event would serve to strengthen both promotions and would also give both promotions leverage as they attempt to negotiate favorable television deals. Strikeforce would bring to the table its relationships with CBS and Showtime, while the UFC would bring its own relationships with Spike TV, Versus, as well as strong pay-per-view numbers. The promotions would certainly be in the position of power at the negotiating table and maybe, just maybe, another network or even ESPN would step in to televise this yearly event.

As fans know, the major sticking point in getting such a proposal to become a reality is Zuffa. And, who can blame White and the Fertittas for their aversion to co-promotion? What’s the incentive for the acknowledged world’s top MMA promotion to share the spotlight with another promotion? Well, hopefully the following five fights we most likely won’t see this coming year — fights that I believe could help take the sport to the next level in a Super Bowl-type event — should give the powers-that-be the motivation to work together.

Heavyweight: Brock Lesnar (UFC) vs. Fedor Emelianenko (Strikeforce)

 This fight alone would be enough to attract fans in droves. There are no fighters in MMA more intriguing than Lesnar and Emelianenko. While Lesnar is reportedly on the mend from what sounds like a very serious illness and will apparently be defending his UFC belt in the not-too-distant future, Emelianenko continues to show fans in the US why he is widely considered the top fighter of the past decade. While all parties involved missed the boat on another potentially epic heavyweight bout a few years ago between Randy Couture and Emelianenko, it would be a shame if MMA fans weren’t treated to a match between the super-athletic and charismatic behemoth Lesnar against the cerebral, quick, and reclusive Emelianenko. 

Light Heavyweight: Lyoto Machida (UFC) vs. Gegard Mousasi (Strikeforce)

Sure, Machida struggled against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in his last bout and many observers felt he lost that fight, but the reality is that Machida did something that’s been a rare feat in recent years — he actually successfully defended the UFC light heavyweight belt. I believe Machida has learned from his mistakes from that first fight and will extend his unbeaten record when he rematches Rua, who has regained his once-dominant Pride form, later this year.

Of all the Super Bowl bouts I’m suggesting, one could argue that this is the least appealing. Not because Mousasi isn’t one of the top 205 lb-ers in the sport but because the UFC essentially has most of the top fighters in this weight class locked up. In other words, the belt that Mousasi holds doesn’t have quite the meaning as the one Machida holds. Regardless, Mousasi has shown fans enough in his two very convincing Strikeforce victories to make this a worthy contest. And, don’t underestimate the man who counts Fedor as a training partner.

Middleweight: Anderson Silva (UFC) vs. Dan Henderson (Strikeforce)

If Strikeforce has one division that rivals or surpasses that of the UFC, it’s the San Jose-based promotion’s middleweight division. The promotion’s current champ at 185 pounds is Jake Shields, which may make my pick a bit confusing. While Shields has proven to be a very worthy 185 pound champ, I believe his true prowess is at welterweight. With that said, I also believe that the newly-signed Henderson will eventually become the promotion’s middleweight champ.

A bout against Silva would be the realization of a goal Henderson has had to rematch the man he lost to just about two years ago. Most MMA fans probably thought Henderson would get that opportunity after his knockout of Michael Bisping at UFC 100. Alas, that was not to be as his UFC contract expired and the fighter and the promotion both decided to move on.

Anderson, on the other hand, hasn’t faced much of a challenge in recent bouts as he’s bounced from middleweight to light heavyweight, but he is next scheduled to fight Vitor Belfort while fighters such as Nate Marquardt and Wanderlei Silva wait for their opportunities (for Marquardt, the fight would be a rematch.) Still, no fighter has put Silva quite on the brink of defeat like Henderson and with very few challenges for the Brazilian at middleweight, who wouldn’t welcome a reprise of their UFC 82 bout?

Welterweight: Georges St. Pierre (UFC) vs. Jake Shields (Strikeforce)

Georges St. Pierre faces a similar dilemma as Anderson Silva — he’s convincingly dispatched of the rest of the division and now has to wonder where his next true challenge will be. Some have openly discussed a move up to 185 pounds, with hopes that such a move, even if temporary, would result in a super-fight against A. Silva. For now, however, GSP faces Dan Hardy at 170 pounds, and while Hardy is certainly no slouch, it’s difficult to see the Brit doing anymore than previously vanquished UFC welterweight title contenders.

Enter Jake Shields. Shields first became welterweight champ in the now-defunct EliteXC. When he moved over to Strikeforce, he decided to fight at 185 pounds. And while he’s certainly big enough and skilled enough to be one of the best at either weight, his wrestling and BJJ skills along with his size make him a formidable matchup at 170 pounds. If Shields has one weakness, it’s his stand-up game and I have a feeling that at middleweight, this relative weakness would be exposed by the likes of all-around studs like Henderson or Marquardt, let alone Anderson Silva.

Of course, what complicates this scenario is that Shields’ stablemate Nick Diaz is fighting for the now-vacant Strikeforce welterweight title against Marius Zaromskis later this month. If Diaz were to win the belt, I’d have to imagine Shields would be hesitant to fight his fellow Cesar Gracie fighter for the belt. Regardless, in my ideal scenario, Shields would be Strikeforce’s 170 pound representative in the Super Bowl.

Lightweight: BJ Penn (UFC) vs. Shinya Aoki (Strikeforce)

Much like GSP and A. Silva, Penn has also cleared out his weight class. While his next opponent, Frankie Edgar, has certainly proven he’s one of the best in the world, the bottom line is that Penn is simply a step above every other lightweight in the UFC. Certainly a future match-up against former Pride stud and newly-signed UFC fighter Takonori Gomi holds promise but the reality is that MMA fans are clamoring for a Penn fight that the UFC can’t currently make — one against Gomi’s fellow countryman, Aoki.

Aoki was only recently announced as a Strikeforce signee and while he’s not Strikeforce’s current champ, he holds a ton of MMA cred given his performances in Dream. And, this is not to diminish the abilities of current Strikeforce champ Gilbert Melendez and past champ Josh Thomson. In fact, I think Melendez has a very legit shot of winning against Aoki, but given Aoki’s otherworldly ground skills, it would take an A+ effort from Melendez to do so. So, while I’m dreaming, I’ll predict that Aoki figures out a way to finish Melendez (which has never been done, by the way) and sets up the dream match against the lightweight demi-god Penn.

While team goals may not have necessarily been met during the 9-7 regular season, there were certainly individual Ravens who broke out or asserted themselves as worthy of recognition. With that said, let’s take a look back on the season as a whole, as I hand out FanBias.com’s end of season awards.

Offensive MVP: RB Ray Rice

This may be the easiest pick of all. The second-year stud out of Rutgers established himself as a dual-threat star in the league with his breakout performance this year. Shifty and quick, Rice picked through defenses all year both as a runner and as a pass receiver. He led the team in receptions with 78 and rushing yards with 1,339 and combined for over 2,000 yards rushing and receiving for the season. The offense was clearly built around him and justifiably so. For his efforts, Rice earned his first Pro Bowl berth. In fact, remove him from the mix and you have to wonder where the Ravens would have gotten their offensive spark from.

Offensive Newcomer: OT Michael Oher

The Ravens found themselves a gem with the 23rd pick in the 2009 NFL Draft when Ozzie Newsome and crew picked Oher to be the team’s offensive tackle of the future. The rookie out of Ole Miss rewarded the Ravens by starting every game this season and by showing versatility, playing both right tackle (11 games) and left tackle (5 games) due to injury to Jared Gaither. Oher was a steal so late in the first round as illustrated by the fact that he came in second in the AP’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He has already given notice that he is one of the team’s top linemen and should become a perennial Pro Bowler in years to come. And, as if that’s not enough, Oher has an inspirational life story to tell, one which has been captured in book and film.

Offensive There’s No “I” in Team Award: RB Willis McGahee

There’s no doubt about it, McGahee is a starting-caliber running back. Unfortunately, with the Ravens, he plays behind a potential All-World do-it-all back in Ray Rice. So, this year, the apparently healthy McGahee had to wait patiently on the sideline for his number to be called. As far I’m concerned, his number wasn’t called often or consistently enough, but when asked to do so, McGahee stepped up time and time again. He scored 12 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns to lead the team with 14 total TD’s during the regular season. And, while the numbers are good, who can forget his long-distance rumble against the Oakland Raiders in the final must-win game of the regular season, a play in which McGahee tossed a defender aside with a vicious stiff arm? While McGahee’s future with the Ravens is uncertain, the man clearly has plenty left in his legs (especially given how sparingly he’s been used over the last two years) and hopefully the team can keep him. McGahee proved this year that he’s a team-first player and I never saw a report in which he publicly expressed any dissatisfaction with his role.

Defensive MVP: LB Ray Lewis

In his 14th season, the 34-year-old Lewis shows no signs of slowing down. Just a few years ago, some were wondering whether Lewis was nearing the end of his career but for the second straight season the University of Miami product started all 16 regular season games and was his usual force in the middle. No Rex Ryan? No Bart Scott? No problem as Lewis led the team in tackles again (with 134) and earned yet another Pro Bowl spot. Lewis is the glue that not only holds the defense together, but is clearly the inspiration for the team and this football-mad town. There may not be a bigger impact player in the NFL over the last decade than Lewis and whenever his career does end (shudder) he should go down as one of the top players in the league ever. While he may have lost a step, Lewis continues to be one of the smartest and most well-prepared players on the field and seems to know where every play is going. His importance to the team cannot be overstated and I rue the day Lewis decides to finally hang up the cleats. He has earned every on-field accolade ever heaped on him and has made the players around him better, which may be the ultimate compliment for any player in any team sport..

Defensive Newcomer: CB Lardarius Webb

A third-round pick out of Nicholls State, Webb only came on as a defensive regular later in the season. Initially the team’s kickoff returner, where he played quite admirably and even scored a touchdown, Webb’s true value came when he was inserted into the starting defensive backfield due to injury. A converted safety, the rookie instantly showed that he was the team’s best cornerback, shoring up a position that experienced quite a bit of tumult over the course of the season. Webb proved not only that he could cover, but also that he could hit hard and tackle, both in pass coverage and in run defense. A season-ending knee injury against the Chicago Bears cut short Webb’s rookie campaign but the first-year man showed enough during his time on the field for me to be optimistic that the Ravens have a shutdown corner in the making. Let’s just hope the coaches don’t continue to use Webb on special teams in years to come.

Special Teams Newcomer: Returner Jalen Parmele

A second year running back stuck on the bench at a tremendously deep position, Parmele got the opportunity to showcase his skills as the team’s kickoff returner late in the season when Lardarius Webb went down with an injury. Decisive and powerful, Parmele provided the team with a spark from the outset. A big man for the position, he nonetheless showed elusiveness and the ability to find holes and make big plays, averaging 31.4 yards per return. That number could have been much higher given that more than a couple of his big returns were called back by penalty. As fans very well know, big plays on special teams can energize the entire team. With Parmele as the team’s kickoff returner, I believe the Ravens have found the man who can provide that spark for years to come. I also hope he can be adapted to become the team’s punt returner as well.

So, here’s why I’m predicting yet another deep Ravens playoff run continuing tonight with a victory over the Colts at Indianapolis. (Am I biased? You bet. But, show me one head coach in the NFL that wants to play these Ravens right now.)

All the pressure is on the Colts. If Indianapolis thought that going 16-0 would add undue pressure on the team heading into the playoffs, I can only imagine the pressure the team must be feeling now after deciding to forego that achievement specifically to get healthy for a Super Bowl run. In other words, the Colts brass decided that making history was less important than winning the Super Bowl. One could argue that those aren’t mutually exclusive propositions but if this team doesn’t win the Super Bowl, then the entire season will have amounted to nothing. At least the 2007-2008 New England Patriots can claim to be the first 18-0 NFL team ever. The Ravens, on the other hand, can play loose, having nothing to lose.

The Colts aren’t very good when they have a bye in the playoffs. In fact, the Colts are 0-4 coming off playoff bye weeks. Whatever the reason, Peyton Manning and crew seem to lose the rhythm they’ve built up over a dominant regular season and fall flat in the playoffs when given time off. This year, the Colts were so dominant they had their division wrapped up early and faced very little competition (outside of the Chargers) for the #1 seed in the AFC. They decided that winning wasn’t important for games 15 and 16, which means the team hasn’t played a meaningful game in about a month.

While regular season dominance is nice, winning the Super Bowl is really all about getting hot at the right time. In fact, the Indy team that won it all in the 2006-2007 season had to play strong through the end of the season and also played wild card weekend, meaning it had no time off during that run. Similarly, these Ravens didn’t clinch a playoff spot until game 16 and have had to play at a high level through the end of the season.

The Ravens are playoff road warriors.  Baltimore is 6-2 in postseason away games in its short history. That includes not only last season’s 2-1 record but also a 2-0 record during their 2000-2001 Super Bowl title run. Clearly (and especially under Harbaugh), this franchise is not intimidated on the road. On the other hand, the Colts are 4-2 at home in the playoffs since 2000, so something’s got to give. With Ravens LB Ray Lewis rallying the troops, I’m betting Baltimore’s us-against-the-world mentality will shine through again on the road.

Joe Flacco is not 100% healthy. While Ravens fans would certainly love to have a QB playing at full strength (and this week he’s argued that he is 100% for this game) reports indicating that Flacco is coping with a hip injury may not be such a bad thing for the Ravens and its fans. Flacco, after all, has struggled against elite teams in his first two seasons. Though he’s been a tremendous game manager and has played well against the NFL’s also-rans, he hasn’t been able to consistently break through against playoff-caliber opponents. So, his supposed injury may be just the excuse coaches need to rely on the Ravens’ true offensive strength — its three-headed monster at running back.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Ravens relied heavily on Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le’Ron McClain in the two must-win games the team faced at the end of the season — week 17 against Oakland and the wild card game against New England. Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves to throw the ball around but the winning formula for the Ravens is and always has been running and defense. And, if Flacco is even a little dinged up, it’s difficult to believe Cameron is going to put the young QB in a position to win the game unless he absolutely has to.

And, here’s even better news. The Colts were 18th in the league during the regular season in total defense and only 24th against the run. They were better against the pass (ranking 14th.) The Ravens, on the other hand, were fifth best in the league running the ball while only ranked 18th passing the ball. In other words, Baltimore would struggle more with an injured Ray Rice than it will without a fully healthy Flacco. All signs (and stats) indicate that the Ravens should run, run, run.

News of the demise of the Ravens D has been greatly exaggerated. Earlier this season, fans wondered what had become of the vaunted Baltimore defense under first year coordinator Greg Mattison. Fans were especially concerned about a lack of rush from the front four and poor coverage in the secondary. Well, the Ravens were a more than respectable eighth against the pass this season while boasting the third best overall defense in the league. And, based on last week’s Patriots victory, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed are getting healthy at just the right time. If the Ravens D can duplicate its effort from the first Colts game this season in which Manning was intercepted twice and the Colts rushing attack was limited to 76 total yards, we very well could be discussing a second consecutive Ravens AFC title game berth.

The Ravens are due. Sometimes, playoff success comes down to good old-fashioned karma. Here’s why fate will play a part if the Ravens are to win tonight: Baltimore has lost six straight against the Colts including 17-15 at M&T Bank Stadium this season and 15-6 in Baltimore in their last meeting in the playoffs back in the 2006-2007 Divisional playoffs. The last time these teams played in Indianapolis (which happened in 2008), the Colts defeated the Ravens 31-3 in an ugly game for Ravens fans.

But, don’t forget that the Ravens had a similarly ominous losing streak against the Patriots before last weekend’s shellacking and New England hadn’t lost a home playoff game since the 70’s. In addition, don’t forget that this is rookie Colts head coach Jim Caldwell’s first playoff match-up. Sure, Manning is the team but Caldwell will have to make some key decisions down the stretch. How will he hold up in the playoff spotlight?

So, I thought I would rank the QBs still left in the playoffs and place them in general tiers. Here’s what I came up with.

Surefire Hall of Famers

These quarterbacks have done it all. They’ve put up impressive regular season numbers; they’ve won playoff games; they’ve won the Super Bowl; and, they’ve won multiple league MVP awards. If their careers were to end today, their fans could make hotel reservations for Canton five years from now. Not surprisingly, these men are also the elder statesmen of the 2009-2010 NFL playoffs.

1. Peyton Manning — Is he the greatest signal-caller ever? One more Super Bowl win would cement that status. Super Bowl winner and four-time NFL MVP.

2. Brett Favre – Maybe the most charismatic and entertaining quarterback (on the field and off) of his generation. Two Super Bowl appearances, one Super Bowl victory, and three-time NFL MVP. He also holds numerous NFL career records including passing TDs, passing yards, and completions.

3. Kurt Warner — There isn’t a better rags to riches story in the NFL in the last 20 years. He’s succeeded with multiple teams, winning with a fun passing style. Three Super Bowl appearances, one Super Bowl victory, and two-time NFL MVP.

Elite Statsheet Stuffers (& Fantasy Gems)

These guys are still young and in the primes of their careers. However, they’ve yet to have that one season that sets them apart from their peers and have yet to win the big one. But, they are fan pleasers and they rack up the wins (and the stats) en route to consistently top notch performances year in and year out. None, in my opinion, are Hall of Famers right now, but let’s see what they do over the next five years.

4. Drew Brees — Has won many a championship for ecstatic fantasy football owners. Despite not being the physically biggest QB around, he’s proven he can spread the ball all over the field. He’s won playoff games, but is now poised to take his career to the next level.

5. Philip Rivers — Gritty, tough, and a winner. He plays with emotion and is now starting to come into his own under Chargers head coach Norv Turner. Could this be the year he wins the Super Bowl and begins his march to the Hall? The Chargers certainly have the team to make that dream a reality.

6. Tony Romo — This season has been a breakthrough for Romo, who’s spent just as much time in the pages of tabloids as he has in the sports section of mainstream newspapers. He won big games in December and last week notched his first playoff victory. He can throw and run and has tantalized Cowboys fans with his potential for years. Now, it seems that Romo just may be ready to put the P word (potential) behind him.

Game Managers

The final two QBs in the playoffs are youngsters in their first two years in the NFL. While both show tremendous upside, they’ve been fortunate to be put in positions where they are not asked to win games, but rather manage them. Both play for teams with remarkably similar blueprints — stingy defenses and stellar multi-pronged running attacks. Think of these guys as young, modern-day Trent Dilfers with upside. But, it’s way too early to know what either of their careers will end up looking like.

7. Joe Flacco — Gets the nod over Sanchez mostly because he’s got an extra year under his belt and has improved somewhat during that year, most importantly landing in the playoffs for the second straight year. While Flacco’s playoff win-loss record is an impressive 3-1 (giving him something neither Aaron Rodgers nor Carson Palmer can claim — a playoff victory), his individual playoff stats are not impressive. While Flacco has shown he can beat the mediocre to bad teams in this league, the next step is to prove that he can play well against the good to great teams. In the meantime, he can enjoy the ride while the Ravens running game and defense carry the day.

8. Mark Sanchez — Only a rookie, Sanchez has had his share of ups and downs in his first NFL season. Down the stretch, however, he’s been steady and made big plays when he’s had to. And, he’s already got a playoff victory under his belt. The Jets are hot at the right time but make no mistake about it, Sanchez is more witness than participant as they make a strong Super Bowl push.