Last year, Vasquez enjoyed a fine junior season that resulted in serious thoughts of leaving early for the NBA and also created quite a bit of preseason hype for the Venezualan prior to this season. But, Vasquez has been a disappointment so far this year and I wonder if the team would be better served if the offense no longer runs through him.

The Terps are an unimpressive 1-3 against quality teams this year (with the lone win coming at Indiana) and although Vasquez’s point production has increased as the season has worn on, one thing has become clear — he’s more often than not a liability on the offensive end. He’s shooting under 35% for the season including a paltry 28% shooting on three-point attempts. What’s even more disturbing is his 3.6 turnovers per game, especially for a player who seems to touch the ball more than anyone else on the team.

But, it’s not even the quantity of missed shots and mistakes that’s the most bothersome — it’s the timing of these plays that hurts the most. While I don’t have the stats on this, it certainly has seemed to me in the games that I’ve watched that Vasquez has rarely made a shot or the right decision when his team has needed it the most. Instead, we’ve seen him frequently brick three point shots or throw the ball away to kill promising rallies.

Add to Vasquez’s woes the fact that sophomore guard Sean Mosley has established himself as the team’s best all-around player in the early-going and the fact that the team has real front-court depth this year and I think Greivis would best help the team in a new capacity — as the first man off the bench.

The senior would benefit from sitting on the bench as the game starts just to get a read on its flow. The team would benefit from his unbridled energy and passion, which are perfect in short, measured doses. He would also give the Terps a fairly daunting second five.

Last year, the Terps needed Vasquez to touch the ball a lot and make plays because the team had little in the way of other scorers, especially in the front court. But, this year, PF Landon Milbourne has continued to progress into the team’s most consistent and dependable big man, while freshman Jordan Williams gives the team a rapidly improving big body to rotate with the now-playing junior Dino Gregory. If anything, this year’s team may be poised to think inside-out rather than outside-in.

In addition, fellow senior guard Eric Hayes continues to make threes and — unlike Vasquez – understands his limitations as a ball-handler, passer, and shooter.

In other words, the teams doesn’t need Vasquez to take over games like he did last year (in fact, I would make Mosley the go-to player in crunch time). Coach Williams just needs him to play within himself in order for the team to succeed.

I would replace Vasquez with junior Adrian Bowie in the starting lineup. While I believe fellow junior Cliff Tucker has more upside than Bowie, he’s prone to making more mistakes and like Vasquez has a game that is perfectly suited to coming off the bench. Bowie is steady — even if not spectacular — and that’s all the team needs.

For the Terps to return to the NCAA tourney this year, Vasquez’s senior season can’t — unfortunately for him — be a showcase for NBA scouts. Instead, it has to be one in which he shows an understanding of a changed role on the team. That role is a reduced one compared to that of previous seasons but it’s also the one that will give the Terps the best chance of enjoying success.

The scrimmage was separated into two 20-minute games between red and black. Coach Gary Williams (wearing a neck brace) observed the action from the court while assistants coached each squad. There’s not much that can be garnered from an intra-squad scrimmage like today’s and you realize just how far away March Madness is but it was fun to watch the team in action after a summer of anticipation.

The starting lineups for the first twenty minutes were as follows:

Red: Greivis Vasquez (21), Landon Milbourne (1), Adrian Bowie (22), Jordan Williams (20), Cliff Tucker (24)

Black: Eric Hayes (5), Jin Soo Choi (11), Sean Mosley (14), Dino Gregory (33), James Padgett (35)

The black team was clearly the better team during this twenty minute period and won.

For the second twenty-minute period, the lineups were switched up a bit:

Red: Eric Hayes (5), Greivis Vasquez (21), Sean Mosley (14), Jordan Williams (20), James Padget (35)

Black: Jin Soo Choi (11), Landon Milbourne (1), Adrian Bowie (22), Cliff Tucker (24), Dino Gregory (33)

Ten minutes into the second half of the scrimmage, Landon Milbourne switched with James Padgett giving the red team a lineup that would appear to be very close to what the Terps’ starting lineup will be when the season begins and this showed as the red squad won the second twenty-minute period.

My Thoughts

Coming into this season, the Terps had an abundance of depth in the backcourt positions especially with the return of Greivis Vasquez, who tested the NBA draft waters early in the summer. The real questions about this team centered around the frontcourt. Last year’s team featured only one big man — Dave Neal — who made a significant impact and he was really more comfortable stepping out and shooting the three, which he did at opportune times throughout the season. Dino Gregory started to show flashes down low as the season wore on.

However, with Neal graduating, much of the Terps’ hopes for success in the frontcourt this year rest on the development of two freshman bigs – Jordan Williams and James Padgett — who join veteran Gregory. Gregory showed good skills around the basket and some nice touch today in solidifying his position as a starter.

Based on what I saw during the scrimmage, Padgett is the freshman who will contribute early and often. He showed a lot of quickness, a good nose for the ball, and some nice moves around the basket. What he needs to work on is finishing but he seemed to get better at that as the scrimmage wore on. Padgett is the thinner of the two frosh, but as he grows into his body, I predict he’s going to be a beast in the ACC. Regardless, I can see Coach Williams being comfortable putting Padgett in as a starter in the frontcourt.

Williams is a project. He wasn’t nearly as assertive as Padgett during the 40 minute session and seemed to disappear at times. However, he also went through spurts where he was active and contributed. He’s a big body who will clearly help with defense and rebounding early on. Offensively, he’ll be a work in progress though he should be able to use his frame to clean up with putbacks around the basket. Williams did surprise me late in the second half with a nice face-up sideline jumper from 10-15 feet away.

Another key for this team is outside shooting. To this end, Eric Hayes looks like he’s going to continue to be the team’s best three point shooter. However, Jin Soo Choi drained a couple from near-three point range as did Adrian Bowie. Vasquez also contributed his own three as did Sean Mosley (who provided steady effort and contributed some nice buckets inside.)

Choi is a very intriguing prospect in his second year. Along with his outside touch, he showed flashes of a player who can be an effective slasher off the dribble and who can make plays passing as well. Could he be next year’s Vasquez? Maybe, but a lot will depend on his decision-making ability and confidence. I hope we see the 6′8″ sophomore get more meaningful playing time this season.

Landon Milbourne was his usual steady self today at small forward. Nothing spectacular but nice work on the receiving end of passes near the basket and a good mid-range jump shoot. He should benefit quite a bit from the presence of additional big men this season, allowing him to float around a bit more.

However, the unquestioned catalyst for the Terps is undoubtedly the 6′6″ Venezuelan senior, Vasquez. He played under control this afternoon but also slashed to the basket several times and finished with his trademark tough off-balance, awkward looking shots. He also scored with a floater running towards the basket and had the play of the game during a fast break when he faked a behind-the-back pass to running mate Sean Mosley before finishing with a layup.

Vasquez is a preseason All-ACC pick, ACC player of the year candidate, and national player of the year candidate. He has the potential to cap off his brilliant Terps career with a player of the year type season. I believe his decision to come back for his senior year will benefit him in next year’s NBA draft (where I could see him going in the top 15 if he continues to progress) while also benefiting the Terps with a deep run in the NCAA tournament. Vasquez can truly do it all and if his long-range game is improved this season he could be truly unstoppable, which would put him in the company of Juan Dixon, Steve Francis, Joe Smith, and Walt Williams as one of the greats during the Coach Williams era.

Maybe the biggest question heading into the season is whether senior guard Eric Hayes will come off the bench again or start. Either way, he’ll play starter minutes and is a key to the team’s success. Another big question is, will Coach Williams use a lot of three-guard lineups or try to go with one of the freshman bigs as a starter or playing significant minutes?

Here’s how I see the rotation playing out:

Starters

G – Sean Mosley

G – Greivis Vasquez

SF – Landon Milbourne

PF – James Padgett

C – Dino Gregory

Off the bench

G – Eric Hayes

G – Adrian Bowie

G – Cliff Tucker

PF – Jordan Williams

SF – Jin Soo Choi

Schedule

The Terps start the season this week with a game against Indiana University of Pennsylvania. There are no gimme’s in college basketball anymore but the Terps’ first real challenge should come later in November with the EA Sports Maui Invitational, where the team will face Chaminade in the first round before going up against either Cincinnati (and former Terps target Lance Stephenson) or Chaminade in the second game. Teams on the other side of the bracket are Colorado, Gonzaga, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

Before the ACC season gets into full gear, the Terps will face Indiana in Bloomington in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge as well as Villanova in DC. Another interesting pre-ACC matchup is a date with Florida Atlantic (led by former GW coach Mike Jarvis) at Comcast Center.

Predictions

The Terps men are ranked 26th in the first AP poll of the year. They were picked to finish 5th in the ACC. I don’t think either of these rankings do justice to what I consider to be a prototypical Gary Williams team — the kind we haven’t seen in a while. Beyond the obvious backcourt depth and experience, the Terps have some skilled big men again and I really like the balance on this team. I predict the Terps will finish in the top 15 nationally and third in the ACC. I see a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament and a run into the second weekend in the tournament.

The season hasn’t begun quite yet but I think it’s going to be a good one for the recently embattled Coach Williams and his rejuvenated men’s team and I’m quite excited.

(All photos from today’s scrimmage taken by me.)