Randy Couture (205) vs. Mark Coleman (205) — PPV

My thoughts: Both Couture and Coleman are physical specimens and would put men twenty years younger to shame with their bodies. However, I can’t see the winner of this one being a contender for the 205 pound title when there are so many other accomplished fighters in what is the UFC’s deepest division. Coleman was impressive in his last bout against Stephen Bonnar but can he escape Couture’s clinch and keep his back away from the cage? If not, Couture should earn a much-needed convincing victory, which ”The Natural” hasn’t had since he defeated Gabriel Gonzaga back in 2007. Five to ten years ago this certainly would have been a veritable mega-fight.

Nate Marquardt (186) vs. Chael Sonnen (185) — PPV

My thoughts: This is the one fight on the card that has title ramifications as the winner should square off against the winner of the Anderson Silva-Vitor Belfort title bout later this year. While Sonnen was impressive in his two highest profile bouts against Paulo Filho in the WEC, I simply can’t see him defeating Marquardt because Marquardt is superior in all facets of the game. I also believe that Marquardt has the tools and the mental fortitude to give Anderson Silva a true challenge in what would be a rematch.

Mike Swick (171) vs. Paulo Thiago (170) — PPV

My thoughts: Since Thiago’s shocking debut upset of Josh Koscheck he’s been less than spectacular inside the Octagon. Swick, on the other hand, must regroup after losing a shot at the title with a loss to Dan Hardy in his previous bout. Both men are fighting to stay relevant in the upper ranks of the UFC’s welterweight division.

Demian Maia (186) vs. Dan Miller (185) — PPV

My thoughts: Maia’s upward trajectory came to a screeching halt in his last fight — a quick KO loss to Marquardt. In Miller, he faces an opponent whose style should present a favorable match-up for the Brazilian BJJ ace. Miller’s best hope is keeping the fight standing. Otherwise history dictates that Maia could win in spectacular fashion. Regardless, Maia is going to have to figure out a way to eventually beat upper-echelon all-around fighters before he can even think of a title shot.

Matt Serra (169) vs. Frank Trigg (171) — PPV

My thoughts: Like Couture-Coleman, this is another fight that will be fun to watch but has very little impact on the welterweight standings. All four of the elders on this card are tremendous ambassadors for the sport and these sorts of match-ups between old-school legends usually don’t disappoint. So, sit back and enjoy this one and don’t worry too much about what it means in the bigger picture.

Mac Danzig (156) vs. Justin Buchholz (156) – Spike TV

My thoughts: I had high hopes for Danzig after he won the TUF 6 title in the welterweight division but he’s now lost three in a row and really needs a victory at UFC 109 to justify future PPV card consideration. Buchholz might be just the remedy for Danzig’s ills as he, too, enters the bout with a losing UFC record, sitting at 1-3 inside the Octagon.

Melvin Guillard (155) vs. Ronys Torres (156) – Spike TV

My thoughts: Guillard is a talented but mercurial fighter who loves to stand and bang but has in the past disparaged the notion of the ground game. So, it’s no surprise that all four of his losses in the UFC have come by submission, including his last one against Nate Diaz. Guillard is still young but at some point, if he wants to make a move in the lightweight division he’s going to have to prove that he can beat the likes of Torres, who is making his Octagon debut and apparently favors the submission game, according to UFC.com’s profile of him. It’s appropriate that Guillard, the New Orleans native, fights on the same weekend his hometown Saints play in the Super Bowl because he’s going to have to deliver some stand-up fireworks to secure a victory.

Phillipe Nover (155) vs. Rob Emerson (155)

My thoughts: It’s interesting that Joe Rogan mistakenly introduced Nover as the TUF 8 champ during the weigh-in introductions because Nover’s fortunes in the UFC have turned since that season-ending loss to Efrain Escudero. Since then, Nover has lost his only non-TUF fight in the Octagon and also suffered a medical issue that prevented him from fighting his last fight. Let’s hope he is healthy again because I still have high hopes for Nover as a future star in the lightweight division, especially if he’s been able to add a wrestling base to his Muay Thai and BJJ foundations.

Brian Stann (205) vs. Phil Davis (205)

My thoughts: Stann is a tremendous story given his military service in defense of this country. However, I haven’t been terribly impressed with him inside the cage. Although he is a former WEC light heavyweight champ, I found his game to be rather one-dimensional and always thought he looked robotic and stiff standing up (even though that’s his strength.) Davis is a youngster in the sport but he has a superior collegiate wrestling pedigree as a four-time All-American and 2008 national champ at Penn State. I saw Davis fight last year at a UWC event and he was very impressive, winning by first round TKO. I see Davis winning in his UFC debut, especially if he can assert himself with strong takedowns.

Tim Hague (263) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (263)

My thoughts: The heavyweight division is now stocked with up-and-coming talent but these two big boys are both coming off TKO losses. Hague lost in a UFC record seven seconds to Todd Duffee his last time in the cage while Tuchscherer lost to Gabriel Gonzaga via first round TKO. I’m especially intrigued by Tuchscherer because he’s a Brock Lesnar training partner. I have to think going up against the UFC heavyweight champ in practice everyday is going to make you a tough out anytime inside the Octagon.

Rolles Gracie (247) vs. Joey Beltran (238)

My thoughts: Both of these fighters are making their UFC debuts so I don’t know much about either one. Rolles might be the biggest Gracie around and not surprisingly his strength is listed as BJJ on UFC.com. Beltran’s profile, on the other hand, states that he has heavy hands. I also happen to think Beltran has a clever nickname — he calls himself “The Mexecutioner.” So, on the surface this matchup would appear to be a classic contrast in styles, but hopefully we’ll learn a little more about both fighters during this bout.

Final thoughts: I consider UFC 109 to be a B+ card by UFC standards. Similar to UFC 108, which didn’t live up to previous New Year’s Day cards, UFC 109 doesn’t live up to previous Super Bowl weekend cards because it lacks a true mega-fight (think back to last year’s GSP-BJ Penn main event on Super Bowl weekend.) Instead, what we as fans get is a strong card with a lot of very good fights (in fact, I’m more interested in the dark card fights in terms of evaluating up-and-coming talent.) While the Couture-Coleman and Serra-Trigg fights serve up venerable names who will be prominent in the annals of the sport, neither fight should have contender ramifications in either the light heavyweight or welterweight divisions, respectively. In fact, the only contender-worthy fight on the card is the Marquardt-Sonnen fight.

Here’s what I’ll be looking for during the card…

What does Randy Couture have left in the tank? This is truly a question and doesn’t imply anything more than that. The last time I underestimated Couture, he proved me wrong against Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga in 2007. Since then, however, the “Natural” was inactive for a year due to a contract dispute with the UFC and has also suffered two losses in the heavyweight division, though both losses came against arguably superior fighters (Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira) and don’t necessarily indicate an erosion of Couture’s skillset.

I expect Couture to win at UFC 105 against Brandon Vera in Couture’s return to the 205 lb. weight class, but if he doesn’t, then I might worry about his future in the sport. With heavyweights getting bigger and bigger and with Couture always on the smaller end of the heavyweight spectrum, I think the move down to light heavyweight makes sense. On the other hand, it’s the UFC’s deepest division so a loss to Vera would not bode well.

Will we see the aggressive Brandon Vera of old? Vera was a rising star in the UFC at the end of 2006, coming off a victory over then-former champ Frank Mir. But his own contract dispute with the promotion followed by consecutive losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum led to Vera’s own drop down to light heavyweight. Though Vera is 3-1 in the light heavyweight division, his wins have not been impressive and he’s lacked the attacking style that made him a darling during his rise in the promotion.

Against Couture, Vera has an opportunity to make a true statement and jump into the top 10. But, can he defend against Couture’s takedown attempts and will he be able to assert his Muay Thai dominance standing up? If the answer to both of those questions is no, we may see Couture ground out a victory. If the answer is yes, a remaining question is, can Vera win in spectacular fashion?

While a victory over Couture would be huge for Vera, unless he can win big, I can’t see Vera being promoted as a title contender in such a deep division that is replete with more exciting and more accomplished fighters.

Can Michael Bisping rebound from his first KO loss? Some UFC fans believe that Bisping has been protected by the promotion in order to prop him up in their attempts to make inroads in the UK. Interestingly enough, when he’s had the opportunity to disprove this theory and fight against elite fighters, Bisping has lost both times (to Rashad Evans in 2007 and Dan Henderson this year.)

The loss to Evans was by split decision and Bisping recovered to run off another winning streak, albeit only after moving down to a lower weight class (185 pounds.) The loss to Henderson, however, is a true test of what Bisping’s future will look like. Bisping was absolutely rocked by the former PRIDE two-belt holder — Bisping’s first-ever loss by KO.

Some fighters never recover from such a devastating loss. We’ll learn a lot about Bisping at UFC 105, especially his mental game, and he certainly isn’t being given an easy opponent in Denis Kang.

Will Denis Kang stake his claim as one of the UFC’s elite? Between 2003 and 2006, Kang won 21 out of 23 fights with no losses during that time (one fight was a draw, the other a no contest.) This spectacular run made Kang one of the hottest fighters in the world. Since then, Kang has cooled off considerably, though his losses have come to the likes of Strikeforce light heavyweight champ Gegard Mousasi as well as Japanese stud Kazuo Misaki.

Still, Kang’s first two fights in the UFC leave the fighter looking for that signature win that will enamor him to UFC fans. His loss to Alan Belcher in his Octagon debut was a surprise upset to a talented but inconsistent fighter. His victory over “Professor X” at UFC 97 did not make the main card of that event.

So, UFC 105 serves as a big opportunity for Kang. He will announce his arrival with a decisive victory over the high profile TUF champ Bisping in front of the Brit’s home crowd. And, that’s what I’m predicting Kang will do.

Is Mike Swick ready for GSP? Swick was initially supposed to fight Martin Kampmann earlier this fall before a training camp injury led to his withdrawal from that bout, which had been touted as a title contender bout. Kampmann was upset by fill-in Paul Daley and Swick now faces Dan Hardy in a division that is currently looking for a new challenger for the dominant champ, Georges St. Pierre.

Swick has looked more and more impressive with each fight since he dropped down to welterweight. No slouch at middleweight, Swick now finds himself as one of the taller, longer fighters in his new division and doesn’t appear to have lost his quick hands, which allowed him to TKO Ben Saunders in his last fight.

If Swick can defeat Hardy in front of the Brit’s home fans, will he be ready for a title shot? If the victory is a finish, I don’t think the UFC has much of a choice, given Swick’s name recognition and winning streak. One could argue that “Quick” should fight a top contender like Thiago Alves (I’m not sure if he’d be willing to fight fellow AKA campmates Josh Koscheck or Jon Fitch) but I think the UFC is looking for a fresh face to put up against St. Pierre. Personally, I’d like a Swick-Alves fight because I’m not sure Swick has proved enough at welterweight for a title shot quite yet but a Swick-GSP bout would certainly be easy to promote.

Will Dan Hardy earn a title shot if he defeats Swick? Listening to Swick’s statements on UFC 105 Countdown this week, you tend to believe that Swick certainly doesn’t believe Hardy has earned a title shot and I tend to agree. I believe Hardy (with only three prior bouts in the UFC) needs to bolster his resume further, even with a victory over Swick.

That would mean pairing Hardy up against one of the elite welterweight fighters — Koscheck, Fitch, or Alves — before giving the Brit a shot at GSP. But, the question for those fighters is, what’s in it for them?

On the other hand, one could argue that a decisive finish by Hardy at UFC 105 combined with his penchant for trash talk would make for a good title fight in either Canada or back in the UK. No matter where the UFC puts that fight and no matter how dominant Hardy’s performance at UFC 105, I still don’t think he’s ready for St. Pierre this early in his career.

Of course, all this is purely speculative because I think Swick will get the job done at UFC 105.