Fan Bias » Power Rankings http://fanbias.com Sports commentary by a hardcore fan... Sun, 21 Feb 2010 00:03:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 en hourly 1 NFL Week 10 Picks Results http://fanbias.com/2009/11/21/nfl-week-10-picks-results/ http://fanbias.com/2009/11/21/nfl-week-10-picks-results/#comments Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:47:35 +0000 Pramit Mohapatra http://fanbias.com/?p=165 It’s been a busy week for me, so I haven’t had a chance to update the results of my week 10 NFL picks until now. Unfortunately, I won’t have time to do week 10 or week 11 NFL power rankings and thus I won’t be doing week 11 or week 12 picks either. However, I do hope to resume with week 12 power rankings along with week 13 picks.

Regardless, here’s how I did straight-up on the week 10 games…

CHI (26) @ SF (23) FanBias.com Pick: SF (Correct)
DET (32) @ MIN (3) FanBias.com Pick: MIN (Correct)
DEN (2) @ WAS (28) FanBias.com Pick: DEN (Incorrect)
ATL (11) @ CAR (19) FanBias.com Pick: ATL (Incorrect)
TB (22) @ MIA (4) FanBias.com Pick: MIA (Correct)
JAC (21) @ NYJ (14) FanBias.com Pick: NYJ (Incorrect)
NO (8) @ STL (25) FanBias.com Pick: NO (Correct)
BUF (27) @ TEN (7) FanBias.com Pick: TEN (Correct)
CIN (1) @ PIT (10) FanBias.com Pick: CIN (Correct)
KC (30) @ OAK (29) FanBias.com Pick: OAK (Incorrect)
DAL (15) @ GB (17) FanBias.com Pick: DAL (Incorrect)
SEA (20) @ ARI (16) FanBias.com Pick: ARI (Correct)
PHI (6) @ SD (19) FanBias.com Pick: PHI (Incorrect)
NE (13) @ IND (5) FanBias.com Pick: IND (Correct)
BAL (12) @ CLE (31) FanBias.com Pick: BAL (Correct)

FanBias.com week 10 record: 9-6
FanBias.com season record: 27-14

My record has gotten progressively worse from week to week but I’m still hovering around 60% correct on any given week and close to 2/3 correct overall.

]]> http://fanbias.com/2009/11/21/nfl-week-10-picks-results/feed/ 0 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings & Week 10 Picks http://fanbias.com/2009/11/12/week-9-nfl-power-rankings-week-10-picks/ http://fanbias.com/2009/11/12/week-9-nfl-power-rankings-week-10-picks/#comments Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:37:11 +0000 Pramit Mohapatra http://fanbias.com/?p=145 I’m 18-8 in two weeks picking NFL games straight up based on my objective power rankings so here are my week 9 power rankings along with my week 10 picks. As a reminder, my rankings are based on NFL.com statistics for turnover differential, penalty yards, rushing yards per game, sacks allowed, rushing yards allowed per game, and sacks forced.

Week 9 Power Rankings:

  1. Cincinnati Bengals
  2. Denver Broncos
  3. Minnesota Vikings
  4. Miami Dolphins
  5. Indianapolis Colts
  6. Philadelphia Eagles
  7. Tennessee Titans
  8. New Orleans Saints
  9. New York Giants
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers
  11. Atlanta Falcons
  12. Baltimore Ravens
  13. New England Patriots
  14. New York Jets
  15. Dallas Cowboys
  16. Arizona Cardinals
  17. Green Bay Packers
  18. Carolina Panthers
  19. San Diego Chargers
  20. Seattle Seahawks
  21. Jacksonville Jaguars
  22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  23. San Francisco 49ers
  24. Houston Texans
  25. St. Louis Rams
  26. Chicago Bears
  27. Buffalo Bills
  28. Washington Redskins
  29. Oakland Raiders
  30. Kansas City Chiefs
  31. Cleveland Browns
  32. Detroit Lions

Week 10 Picks

CHI (26) @ SF (23) FanBias.com Pick: SF
DET (32) @ MIN (3) FanBias.com Pick: MIN
DEN (2) @ WAS (28) FanBias.com Pick: DEN
ATL (11) @ CAR (19) FanBias.com Pick: ATL
TB (22) @ MIA (4) FanBias.com Pick: MIA
JAC (21) @ NYJ (14) FanBias.com Pick: NYJ
NO (8) @ STL (25) FanBias.com Pick: NO
BUF (27) @ TEN (7) FanBias.com Pick: TEN
CIN (1) @ PIT (10) FanBias.com Pick: CIN
KC (30) @ OAK (29) FanBias.com Pick: OAK
DAL (15) @ GB (17) FanBias.com Pick: DAL
SEA (20) @ ARI (16) FanBias.com Pick: ARI
PHI (6) @ SD (19) FanBias.com Pick: PHI
NE (13) @ IND (5) FanBias.com Pick: IND
BAL (12) @ CLE (31) FanBias.com Pick: BAL

]]> http://fanbias.com/2009/11/12/week-9-nfl-power-rankings-week-10-picks/feed/ 0 Week 9 NFL Picks Results http://fanbias.com/2009/11/11/week-9-nfl-picks-results/ http://fanbias.com/2009/11/11/week-9-nfl-picks-results/#comments Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:11:57 +0000 Pramit Mohapatra http://fanbias.com/?p=131 Picking based on my week 8 NFL Power Rankings, here’s how I did straight up for the 13 week 9 NFL games (as you’ll see there was a slight dropoff from week 8 but still well above .500)…

  • WAS (26) @ ATL (15) FanBias.com Pick: ATL (Correct)
  • MIA (21) @ NE (13) FanBias.com Pick: NE  (Correct)
  • GB (19) @ TB (28) FanBias.com Pick: GB (Incorrect)
  • KC (31) @ JAC (23) FanBias.com Pick: JAC (Correct)
  • ARI (21) @ CHI (20) FanBias.com Pick: CHI (Incorrect)
  • HOU (24) @ IND (7) FanBias.com Pick:IND (Correct)
  • BAL (8) @ CIN (2) FanBias.com Pick:CIN (Correct)
  • CAR (15) @ NO (3) FanBias.com Pick: NO (Correct)
  • DET (30) @ SEA (17) FanBias.com Pick: SEA (Correct)
  • TEN (11) @ SF (22) FanBias.com Pick: TEN (Correct)
  • SD (19) @ NYG (9) FanBias.com Pick: NYG (Incorrect)
  • DAL (10) @ PHI (4) FanBias.com Pick: PHI (Incorrect)
  • PIT (13) @ DEN (1) FanBias.com Pick: DEN (Incorrect)

FanBias.com week 9 record: 8-5

FanBias.com season record: 18-8

]]> http://fanbias.com/2009/11/11/week-9-nfl-picks-results/feed/ 0 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings & Week 9 Predictions http://fanbias.com/2009/11/05/week-8-nfl-power-rankings-week-9-predictions/ http://fanbias.com/2009/11/05/week-8-nfl-power-rankings-week-9-predictions/#comments Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:40:03 +0000 Pramit Mohapatra http://fanbias.com/?p=75 After going 10-3 in the NFL’s week 7 games using my statistically-based power rankings, I’m back with my week 8 rankings. I’m using essentially the same methodology this week (though I tweaked the formula ever so slightly) ranking the teams based on three factors: smart play (measured by turnover differential and penalty yardage), offensive line play (rushing yards and sacks allowed), and defensive line play (rushing yards allowed and sacks forced). Again, because some teams have not yet had their bye weeks, the rankings are slightly skewed.

Without further ado, here are my week 8 NFL power rankings:

  1. Denver Broncos
  2. Cincinnati Bengals
  3. New Orleans Saints
  4. Philadelphia Eagles
  5. Minnesota Vikings
  6. Miami Dolphins
  7. Indianapolis Colts
  8. Baltimore Ravens
  9. New York Giants
  10. Dallas Cowboys
  11. Tennessee Titans
  12. New England Patriots
  13. Pittsburgh Steelers
  14. Atlanta Falcons
  15. Carolina Panthers
  16. New York Jets
  17. Seattle Seahawks
  18. Green Bay Packers
  19. San Diego Chargers
  20. Chicago Bears
  21. Arizona Cardinals
  22. San Francisco 49ers
  23. Jacksonville Jaguars
  24. Houston Texans
  25. Washington Redskins
  26. Buffalo Bills
  27. St. Louis Rams
  28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  29. Oakland Raiders
  30. Detroit Lions
  31. Kansas City Chiefs
  32. Cleveland Browns

Based on these rankings, here are my predictions for the week 9 NFL games:

  • WAS (26) @ ATL (15) FanBias.com Pick: ATL  
  • MIA (21) @ NE (13) FanBias.com Pick: NE
  • GB (19) @ TB (28) FanBias.com Pick: GB       
  • KC (31) @ JAC (23) FanBias.com Pick: JAC      
  • ARI (21) @ CHI (20) FanBias.com Pick: CHI     
  • HOU (24) @ IND (7) FanBias.com Pick:IND       
  • BAL (8) @ CIN (2) FanBias.com Pick:CIN     
  • CAR (15) @ NO (3) FanBias.com Pick: NO 
  • DET (30) @ SEA (17) FanBias.com Pick: SEA  
  • TEN (11) @ SF (22) FanBias.com Pick: TEN     
  • SD (19) @ NYG (9) FanBias.com Pick: NYG     
  • DAL (10) @ PHI (4) FanBias.com Pick: PHI  
  • PIT (13) @ DEN (1) FanBias.com Pick: DEN

Check back early next week (around Tuesday or Wednesday) to see how I did.

]]> http://fanbias.com/2009/11/05/week-8-nfl-power-rankings-week-9-predictions/feed/ 0 Results of Week 8 NFL Picks http://fanbias.com/2009/11/03/results-of-week-8-nfl-picks/ http://fanbias.com/2009/11/03/results-of-week-8-nfl-picks/#comments Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:17:25 +0000 Pramit Mohapatra http://fanbias.com/?p=68 Last week I introduced you to my methodology for creating a statistically-based objective NFL power ranking. Well, the week 8 NFL games have been played and we can now determine how these rankings would have done in picking these games straight up.

For each week 8 NFL game, I simply took the team with the better power ranking. Here were the games (with each team’s power ranking in parentheses) and the predicted winners (based solely on the rankings.)

Seattle (18) @ Dallas (17) FanBas.com pick:Dallas (Correct)

Denver (1) @ Baltimore (8) FanBias.com pick: Denver (Incorrect)

Miami (4) @ NY Jets (23) FanBias.com pick: Miami (Correct)

San Francisco (20) @ Indianapolis (5) FanBias.com pick: Indianapolis (Correct)

Cleveland (32) @ Chicago (22) FanBias.com pick: Chicago (Correct)

St. Louis (29) @ Detroit (30) FanBias.com pick: St. Louis (Correct)

NY Giants (9) @ Philadelphia (2) FanBias.com pick: Philadelphia (Correct)

Houston (24) @ Buffalo (26) FanBias.com pick: Houston (Correct)

Jacksonville (12) @ Tennessee (14) FanBias.com pick: Jacksonville (Incorrect)

Oakland (25) @ San Diego (19) FanBias.com pick: San Diego (Correct)

Minnesota (6) @ Green Bay (13) FanBias.com pick: Minnesota (Correct)

Carolina (21) @ Arizona (15) FanBias.com pick: Arizona (Incorrect)

Atlanta (11) @ New Orleans (3) FanBias.com pick: New Orleans (Correct)

FanBias.com week 8 record: 10-3

FanBias.com season record: 10-3

Clearly the sample size is still very small, but I consider 10-3 a good start. I’ll continue to use the same methodology for formulating my power rankings on  a weekly basis and I’ll continue to keep track of how predictive those rankings are in picking games straight up for the remainder of the NFL season.

]]> http://fanbias.com/2009/11/03/results-of-week-8-nfl-picks/feed/ 0 Statistical NFL Power Rankings http://fanbias.com/2009/10/31/statistical-nfl-power-rankings/ http://fanbias.com/2009/10/31/statistical-nfl-power-rankings/#comments Sat, 31 Oct 2009 14:55:03 +0000 Pramit Mohapatra http://fanbias.com/?p=45 Inspired by the Woodman, I’ve decided to concoct my own statistically-based NFL power rankings. We’ve all seen the various power rankings put out by mainstream media experts. But, I’m under the impression that they are very subjective. So, why not try to create an objective ranking that not only tells you how a team has done in the past but also might have some predictive value.

Such a ranking becomes more effective with more data, so it’d be pointless to try to do one early in the season. However, given that the 2009 NFL season is now seven weeks old, I figured let’s give this a shot.

In order to calculate the rankings, I used various team statistical measures (which I’ll get into in just a moment) provided by NFL.com. One caveat though. Because of bye weeks, there’s a slight inconsistency because some stats are based on season totals and thus teams that have played more games may benefit in some cases and lose out in others. (And note that I may tweak the formula over time in an attempt to refine these rankings.)

The stats I used were turnover differential, total penalty yardage, average rush yards per game, total sacks allowed, average rush yards allowed per game, and total sacks forced.

Why?

Here’s my rationale: turnovers and penalties give us an indication of how many mistakes a team makes or how careful they are over the course of a game. Rush yards and sacks allowed give us an indication as to how good the offensive line is while rush yards allowed and sacks forced tell us about the defensive line. I’m a firm believer that success in the NFL starts on both lines, in the trenches. Whether a team is a passing team or a running team. Whether a team wants to stop the run or defend the pass. And, I believe that with talent fairly evenly dispersed throughout the league, the difference between winning and losing often comes down to limiting mistakes.

With that said, here are my NFL power rankings for week 7:

  1. Denver Broncos
  2. Philadelphia Eagles
  3. New Orleans Saints
  4. Miami Dolphins
  5. Indianapolis Colts
  6. Minnesota Vikings
  7. Cincinnati Bengals
  8. Baltimore Ravens
  9. New York Giants
  10. New England Patriots
  11. Atlanta Falcons
  12. Jacksonville Jaguars
  13. Green Bay Packers
  14. Tennessee Titans
  15. Arizona Cardinals
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers
  17. Dallas Cowboys
  18. Seattle Seahawks
  19. San Diego Chargers
  20. San Francisco 49ers
  21. Carolina Panthers
  22. Chicago Bears
  23. New York Jets
  24. Houston Texans
  25. Oakland Raiders
  26. Buffalo Bills
  27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  28. Washington Redskins
  29. St. Louis Rams
  30. Detroit Lions
  31. Kansas City Chiefs
  32. Cleveland Browns

What I like about this statistically-based set of rankings is that they are an attempt to go beyond the records. Because of that, although I generally think the rankings tend to correlate with the records, you’ll see some teams that have over-performed or under-performed relative to what the statistics say they should have done.

For example, Philadelphia (4-2) and Tennessee (0-6) are examples of teams that are underperforming relative to their power rankings. In Philadelphia’s case, their offensive line stats are middle of the pack but their d-line and turnover differential are helping them overcome this deficiency. The Eagles are not doing very well in avoiding penalties, though.

A team that’s overperforming is Pittsburgh (5-2). The stats say this is a middle of the pack team, but the Steelers are atop the AFC North for now.

What will be interesting to watch is how these rankings change with time and whether the real records slowly move to reflect what the stats are showing us. In the end, there’s more to football than just stats — you can’t measure luck, grit, heart, and other intangibles. On the other hand, stats also serve as a measure of how teams generally perform and barring major injuries or some drastic mid-season change I believe the power rankings will be fairly consistent from week to week.

Whether these power rankings have any predictive value also remains to be seen. I’ll be posting my predictions for week 8 NFL games based on these rankings soon. Let’s see what happens when the athletes actually play the games on Sunday and Monday.

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